新冠肺炎疫情的经济影响分解与对策研究

Study on Decomposition and Countermeasures of the Economic Impact of Covid-19

本研究综合应用投入产出模型和可计算一般均衡模型评估了新冠肺炎疫情从需求侧和供给侧冲击我国经济产生的直接和间接产业链效应、反弹效应以及短期与长期的综合效应。研究结果表明:相较于基准水平,短期内(2020年)疫情的需求侧产业链效应可导致国内生产总值(GDP)下降3.3%,而不同情景下供给侧产业链效应可使GDP下降6.4%~12.8%,但反弹效应能分别抵消需求侧和供给侧产业链效应的50%和65%;相较于基准水平,如不采取干预政策,疫情的供需综合冲击将使GDP在短期内下降5.9%~6.5%,长期内(2021—2035年)下降7%;疫情冲击不同行业引起的经济系统损失差异较大,其中建筑业、批发零售业和房地产业等行业应引起关注;短期内,实施稳就业和稳投资政策,将劳动投入损失控制在较小程度,投资规模恢复到基准水平的95%以上,则可使我国经济实现1.41%~2.96%的增长;长期内,采取稳就业、稳投资措施可在长期内将GDP相较于基准水平的降幅维持在1.5%~2.5%之间;采取稳就业和适度扩张性投资可在长期内使GDP逐渐收敛于基准水平,但可能不利于优化产业结构。因此,进一步释放经济体系反弹效应以及稳就业、稳投资是应对疫情经济影响的重要措施。

This study evaluates direct and indirect industrial chain effects,rebound effects,and the shortterm and long-term comprehensive effects arising from shocks of Covid-19 on China’s economy from both the demand side and the supply side by using the input-output model(IO)and the computable general equilibrium model.The results show that:Compared with the baseline,the demand-side industrial chain effects(DICE)of the pandemic may decrease gross domestic product(GDP)by 3.3%in the short term(2020)while the supply-side industrial chain effects(SICE)will decrease GDP by 6.4%~12.8%in different scenarios,but the rebound effects can offset the DICE and SICE by 50%and 65%respectively.Compared with the baseline,if no countermeasure is implemented,the supply-and demand-side synthetic shock of the pandemic will reduce GDP by 5.9%~6.5%in the short term,by 7%in the long term(2021—2035).There are obvious gaps between economic system losses from different industries shocked by the pandemic,and industries such as construction,wholesale and retail,and real estate deserve more attention.In the short term,implementing the policies of stabilizing employment and investment,controlling the loss of labor input to a small extent,and restoring the investment scale to more than 95%of the benchmark level will enable China’s economy to achieve growth from1.41%to 2.96%.In the long term,implementation of the policies of stabilizing employment and investment can maintain the reduction of GDP between 1.5%and 2.5%compared with the baseline.Implementation of the countermeasures of stabilizing employment and moderately expansionary investment will make GDP converge to the baseline gradually in the long term but may not be helpful to industrial structure optimization.Therefore,further releasing the rebound effects of the economic system,stabilizing employment and stabilizing investment are important countermeasures to cope with the economic impacts of Covid-19.