城市网络位置与疫情风险

City’s Network Position and Epidemic Risk

作为重大突发公共卫生事件,传染病疫情风险是一个值得关注的前沿新论题。本文从一个较新的网络拓扑视角,以新冠肺炎疫情为例,构建了一个由病毒感染人群流动形成的城市间疫情关联网络,并探讨了城市在疫情关联网络中的位置对其疫情风险的影响。研究发现,城市之间的传染病疫情呈现出紧密的网络关联性;疫情的风险程度与城市在疫情关联网络中的位置密切相关,处在网络重要位置的城市与其他城市关联度较高,从而面临更大的疫情风险,这一点在针对城市群和交通枢纽聚集性感染风险研究中尤为突出。拓展分析表明,城市网络中心度具有疫情扩散风险放大效应,关闭离汉通道措施有助于降低城市在疫情关联网络中的核心位置对本城市疫情风险的影响。

As a major public health emergency,the risk of an epidemic is a new but important research topic.From a new network topological perspective,this paper constructs an inter-city epidemic connection network due to the mobility of infected people based on COVID-19 and empirically examines the impacts of a city’s network position on its epidemic risk.We find that the inter-city epidemic is highly interconnected.A city’s network centrality has a positive and significant effect on epidemic risk.Further analysis shows that a city’s network centrality can amplify the epidemic spread risk.Hubei’s lockdown reduces the effects of a city’s network centrality on epidemic risk.