摘要
为准确把握航路点流量变化趋势和缓解空中交通压力,提出了一种基于飞行计划集中处理的流量预测方法。首先,在预战术飞行流量管理阶段,通过飞行计划集中处理可得到的航空器飞行计划信息,根据各航班在起飞前提交的领航计划电报和全飞行剖面混杂模型来预测航空器的航迹;然后,通过预测出航空器过关键航路点的过点时间,并结合空域结构数据来获得主要航路点的流量预测值;最后,通过算例仿真的结果可以发现所提出的航路飞行流量预测方法能够很好地对关键航路点进行预测,并且所提方法是切实可行和有效的。
To accurately forecast the development trend of en-route flow points in the future and relieve air traffic pressure,a traffic prediction method based on centralized flight plan processing was proposed.Firstly,the aircraft flight plan information obtained by centralized processing of flight plan was used to predict the flight path of aircraft according to the pilot plan telegrams submitted by each flight before take-off and the hybrid model of the whole flight profile in the stage of pre-tactical flight flow management.Then,the predicted flow value of main en-route points was obtained by predicting the crossing time of critical en-route points and combining with spatial structure data.Finally,through the simulation results of the example,it is found that the proposed traffic prediction method can predict the critical en-route points well,and the proposed method is feasible and effective.
作者
向征
丁钰童
XIANG Zheng;DING Yu-tong(School of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan 618307, China)
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2021年第24期10525-10530,共6页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
中国民用航空飞行学院科研项目(J2021-082)
中国民用航空飞行学院大学生创新创业项目(S202010624132)。
关键词
飞行计划集中处理
预战术流量管理
航迹预测
飞行流量预测
centralized flight plan processing
pre-tactical traffic management
trajectory prediction
flight flow prediction