跨国油气管道政治风险扩散的突变效应分析

Analysis on catastrophe effect of political risk diffusion on multinational oil and gas pipelines

随着中国能源进口不断增加,跨国油气管道建设、运营业务量也在不断扩大。由于跨国油气管道自身特有的政治属性,其政治风险尤为复杂、突出,易产生风险危害,并诱发风险效应。根据跨国油气管道的系统特性,在引入风险熵理论的基础上,结合燕尾突变模型,对跨国油气管道政治风险扩散的突变效应的影响因素、形成过程、发生条件等进行了剖析。基于跨国油气管道政治风险扩散突变效应的实质,提出了抑制管道系统耗散结构形成、风险解耦等应对突变效应的建议,以期为跨国油气管道政治风险管理提供一定的参考。

With more energy imported by China,the business on construction and operation of multinational oil and gas pipelines is increasing rapidly.The unique political attributes of multinational oil and gas pipelines are likely to bring about complicated and prominent political risks to the pipelines,which may not only trigger hazardous risks,but also induce risk effects.According to the system characteristics of multinational oil and gas pipelines,the influence factors,formation process and occurrence conditions of the catastrophe effect of political risk diffusion on the multinational oil and gas pipelines were analyzed based on the swallowtail catastrophe model by introducing the risk entropy theory.Based on the essence of catastrophe effect of political risk diffusion on multinational oil and gas pipelines,the suggestions were put forward to cope with the catastrophe effect by prohibiting the formation of dissipative structure and risk decoupling in the pipeline system,providing reference to the political risk management of multinational oil and gas pipelines to some extent.