信用规模对实体经济和虚拟经济影响效应的异质性分析

Heterogeneity of Credit Scale’s Effect on Real Economy and Virtual Economy

基于1998—2019年中国省际面板数据,通过探究信用规模与实体经济、虚拟经济的关系,挖掘和解释信用规模扩张对经济发展的影响机制。市场经济首先是信用经济,随着信用交易不断增多,信用规模对经济发展的作用不断加大。从经济类型的异质性研究发现,信用规模扩张能够显著促进经济发展,且对虚拟经济的促进作用强于实体经济;从空间异质性来看,东部地区信用规模扩张能够显著促进实体经济和虚拟经济发展,对虚拟经济的作用更强,而中西部地区信用规模扩张对实体经济有显著的提升作用,对虚拟经济发展的促进作用并不显著。研究的政策启示是以信用规模扩张促进实体经济发展,防范虚拟经济过度发展,针对不同区域信用规模的扩张采取差异化调控措施。

Based on China’s provincial panel data from 1998 to 2019,this paper explores the relationships between credit scale and real economy,virtual economy respectively,aiming to explore and explain the influence mechanism of credit scale expansion on economic development.Market economy is credit economy at first.With the continuous increase of credit transactions,credit scale plays an increasingly important role in economic development.From the perspective of real economy and virtual economy,it is found that credit scale expansion can significantly promote economic development,and its promoting effect on virtual economy is stronger than that of real economy.As for in the eastern region of China,credit scale can significantly promote the development of real economy and virtual economy,and also has a stronger effect on the virtual economy.In the central and western regions of China,credit scale expansion has a significant effect on the promotion of real economy,however,with no significant effect on the development of virtual economy.The policy enlightenment of this study is to promote the development of real economy by the expansion of credit scale,to prevent the excessive development of virtual economy,and to take differentiated regulation measures for the expansion of credit scale in different regions.