数量型货币政策调控有助于金融稳定吗——基于时变货币需求的货币政策有效性再评价

Does Quantitative Monetary Policy Regulation Contribute to Financial Stability? Re-Evaluation of Monetary Policy Effectiveness Based on Time-Varying Money Demand

金融稳定事关经济与金融发展全局,维护实体经济与金融体系的双重稳定已成为新时代中国宏观经济调控的重要任务。通过对中国货币需求的动态评估,为数量型货币政策立场提供了一个评价基准,并基于此对数量型货币政策有效性与非对称性特征进行再评价。结果表明:首先,现代金融环境下,国民收入、金融资产以及支付手段创新因素对货币需求存在正向影响,机会成本与货币替代因素则在一定程度上抑制了货币需求;其次,货币缺口可以用来合理划分数量型货币政策立场,以货币需求为基准、货币缺口为指示器的数量型货币政策整体有效,并且可以兼顾对宏观经济和金融体系的双重调控;最后,中国数量型货币政策效应具有典型的非对称性特征,其中紧缩性货币政策具有较强的产出效应,而扩张性货币政策的价格效应和金融稳定效应则更为显著。这些研究结论或可为切实提高数量型货币政策在通胀预期管理、保障宏观经济平稳运行并有效维护金融稳定等方面的效应提供有益的政策启示。

Financial stability concerns the overall economic and financial development,so maintaining the dual stability of the real economy and the financial system has become an important task of China’s macroeconomic regulation and control in the new era.Through the dynamic evaluation of China’s money demand,this paper provides an evaluation benchmark for quantitative monetary policy stance,then based on this,it re-evaluates the effectiveness and asymmetric characteristics of quantitative monetary policy.The results show that,firstly,in the modern financial environment,national income,financial assets and payment innovation factors have a positive impact on money demand,while opportunity cost and currency substitution factors inhibit money demand to a certain extent;secondly,money gaps can be reasonably used to divide the stance of quantitative monetary policy,the quantitative monetary policies based on money demand and with monetary gap as indicator are overall effective,which can take into account the dual regulation of the macroeconomic and financial system;Finally,the effect of China’s quantitative monetary policy has typical asymmetric characteristics,of which the tight-monetary policy has a relatively strong output effect,while the price effect and financial stability effect of the expansionary monetary policy are more significant.These research conclusions may provide useful policy enlightenment for effectively improving the effects of quantitative monetary policy in the management of inflation expectations,ensuring the stable operation of the macro economy,and effectively maintaining financial stability.