概率积分参数的交互式反演方法研究

Study on Interactive Inversion of Probability Integral Parameters

概率积分法是我国矿山开采沉陷预计的主要方法,其预计的精度直接取决于参数准确性。目前国内外学者尝试采用各种智能算法进行概率积分参数反演的研究工作。在反演过程中,由于实测数据监测误差、地表变形不规律、概率积分参数相关性、反演过程中拟合误差评价准则的选取等问题,产生的对反演结果准确性的影响,是难以通过优化反演算法消除的。因此,研究采用交互式方法,通过提高关键部位变形数据的拟合效果,直接实时地干预和调整不合理的参数组合,有效提高了参数反演结果的准确性和可靠性。研究结合Visual Basic编程语言,设计和开发了交互式参数反演程序,实际工程案例的分析应用,确定了该方法的有效性。

Probability integral method is the main method of mining subsidence prediction in China, and its prediction accuracy directly depends on the accuracy of parameters. At present, scholars at home and abroad try to use various intelligent algorithms to study probability integral parameter inversion. In the inversion process, due to the monitoring error of measured data, irregular surface deformation, correlation of probability integral parameters, selection of evaluation criteria for fitting error in the inversion process, etc., the influences on the accuracy of inversion results are difficult to be completely eliminated by optimizing inversion algorithm. Therefore, by using the interactive method, the accuracy and reliability of parameter inversion results are effectively improved by directly intervening and adjusting the unreasonable parameter combinations in real time by improving the fitting effect of deformation data of key parts. Combined with Visual Basic programming language, the interactive parameter inversion program is designed and developed. The analysis and application of practical engineering cases confirm the effectiveness of this method.