基于灰色预测模型的轨道交通系统安全经济效益定量评价

The Quantitative Evaluation of Safety and Economic Benefits of the Rail Transit System Based on Gray Prediction Model

从安全经济学的角度出发,运用安全投资优化技术与安全经济分析理论的方法找出最优的安全投入点,说明合理的安全投资可以使轨道交通产生最大效益,并且对安全投入分类标准进行了创新,分为设备设施、日常管理、环境、文化教育等4类标准。采用灰色预测模型方法,以某市轨道交通系统为例,对轨道交通安全投入进行预测分析,完成某市轨道交通系统安全经济效益定量评价,根据评价结果验证了合理的安全投资会对轨道交通系统的设备、管理、环境、文化的安全发展带来影响。

From the point of view of safety economics,the optimal safety investment point was found out through safety investment optimization technology and safety economic analysis theory,showing that reasonable safety investment can make rail transit produce the maximum benefit,and the classification standard of safety input was innovated,which was divided into four categories,equipment and facilities,daily management,environment,culture and education.Taking the rail transit system of a city as an example,the safety input of rail transit was predicted and analyzed by using the gray prediction model,the quantitative evaluation of the safety and economic benefits of the rail transit system of a city was completed.According to the results of the evaluation,it is verified that the reasonable safety investment will have an impact on the safety development of the equipment,management,environment and culture of the rail transit system.