居民拥有车辆需求影响因素分析:基于系统动力学的概念模型

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Household Car Ownership:Conceptual Model Based on System Dynamics

为了分析影响居民拥有车辆需求的因素及其作用机理,利用系统动力学方法,进行了系统分析和系统结构分析,构建了各种影响因素与居民拥有车辆需求之间的因果链,并通过陈述偏好(stated preference,SP)网络调查获取的数据建立了模型.影响居民拥有车辆的因素按照家庭特征、收入支出、竞争交通方式、城市形态、政策和文化6个方面进行了分类,并从正向和负向影响2个方面进行了归纳.研究发现了高密度大城市2个将车辆拥有率控制在合理水平的负反馈回路:一个是道路运行状况与居民拥有车辆需求的负反馈回路;另一个是机动车车位供给与居民拥有车辆需求的负反馈回路.模型测试结果显示,在我国大城市,停车价格还没有达到均衡价格,如果停车收费价格提高,购买或持有车辆的需求将会得到控制.

To analyze the factors that affect the household car ownership and its mechanism,the system and system structures were analyzed by using the method of system dynamics(SD).The causal chains between various factors and household car ownership were distinguished.The SD modal was built based on the data obtained from SP on-line survey.The factors that have influences on household car ownership were classified according to family characteristics,economy,transport mode,urban form,policy and culture.These factors were classified into positive and negative sets.Two negative feedback loops that explain why the car ownership is at a low level in high-density metropolitan areas,were identified.One is the negative feedback loop between road traffic congestion and household car ownership demand,and the other is between parking supply and household car ownership.Model test results show that the parking fee has not reached the equilibrium level in China's big cities,and the demand for purchasing or holding cars will be suppressed when the parking fee increases.