基于系统动力学的深圳装配式建筑政策效果分析

Policy Effect Analysis of Prefabricated Buildings in Shenzhen Based on System Dynamics

针对深圳装配式建筑发展现状及现有政策实施水平,利用Vensim软件构建出深圳装配式建筑系统动力学模型,厘清深圳装配式建筑与社会发展各因素间的相关关系,并预测未来几年深圳装配式建筑的发展趋势。在此基础上,对深圳装配式建筑九大产业政策的实施效果进行了敏感性分析,等比例地提高2018-2025年单个产业政策的政策数量,并探究其对深圳建安企业开发意愿、深圳装配式建筑开发成本、深圳装配式建筑需求量、深圳装配式建筑碳排放降低量等变量的不同影响效果,进而对9类产业政策的实施效果进行对比分析。研究发现建设环节支持政策、财政政策、技术政策和规划政策的实施效果较好,针对这4类产业政策的实施现状,提出了相应的改进建议。

Aiming at the development status of prefabricated buildings and the implementation level of existing policies in Shenzhen,Vensim software is applied to construct the system dynamics model of prefabricated building in Shenzhen,clarify the correlation between prefabricated building and various factors of social development in Shenzhen,and predict the development trend of prefabricated building in Shenzhen in the next few years.The paper makes a sensitivity analysis on the implementation effect of nine industrial policies for improving prefabricated buildings in Shenzhen,increasing the number of individual industrial policies in the equal proportion from 2018 to 2025,exploring the different effects on the development intention of local construction and installation enterprises,development cost of prefabricated buildings,demand for prefabricated buildings,carbon emission reduction of prefabricated buildings and other variables.The implementation effect of nine kinds of industrial policies are analyzed comparatively.It is found that supporting policies in the construction link,financial policies,technical policies and planning policies have better effects.In view of the current situation of the implementation of these four types of industrial policies,this paper propsed corresponding suggestions for improvement.