能源消费变动对污染物排放影响的时空效应研究

A Study on the Time-space Effect of Energy Consumption Change on Pollutant Emissions

在设定空间权重矩阵的基础上,借助中国30个省份2000-2017年的面板数据,分别选择工业废水排放量、工业二氧化硫排放量、工业粉尘排放量、工业废气排放量、工业固体废物产生量等作为被解释变量,根据空间面板模型识别检验的结果选择适配的空间面板模型估计能源消费规模与能源消费结构对生态环境的影响。研究结果表明:中国生态环境已经形成北方污染严重、南方污染相对较轻,且污染区域连片的空间格局。能源消费规模对不同污染物的直接效应均是显著的,且均为正的直接效应,符合预期假设;除工业二氧化硫外,能源消费结构对其他污染物均有显著的正向直接效应,符合预期假设;能源消费规模与能源消费结构对大部分污染物的空间溢出效应均不显著。

Based on the spatial weight matrix and the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017,this paper chooses industrial waste water emissions, industrial sulfur dioxide emissions, industrial dust emissions, industrial waste gas emissions, and industrial solid waste generation. Then, according to the results of the spatial panel model identification test, it identifies a suitable spatial panel model to estimate the impact of energy consumption scale and structure on the ecological environment. The results show that China ’s ecological environment has formed a spatial pattern featuring heavy pollution in the north and relatively slight pollution in the south with contiguous polluted areas. Energy consumption scale has a significantly positive and direct effect on different pollutants, consistent with the expected hypothesis;energy consumption structure has a significantly positive and direct effect on the pollutants except industrial sulfur dioxide, which acts in line with the expected hypothesis;the spatial spillover effect of energy consumption scale and structure on most pollutants is not obvious.