环境规制与工业就业关系研究——基于西北经济区地级市数据的实证分析

A study of environmental regulation and industrial employment

首次聚焦于生态脆弱的西北经济区,使用2004-2017年37个地级市数据,借助GMM和中介效应模型,探讨环境规制对工业就业的影响及内在传导机制。结果表明:该地区环境规制与工业就业存在先抑制后促进的U型动态关系,当前规制强度处在曲线的下降阶段,短期内规制力度的加大不利于释放就业"福利";与高污染地区相比,低污染地区环境规制强度更接近曲线拐点,容易跨过拐点获得工业就业"福利";生产成本和技术创新作为中介变量在环境规制影响工业就业时起抑制作用,尚未能释放就业"福利"。

Focusing on the ecologically fragile northwest economic zone for the first time,we used the data of 37 prefecture level cities from 2004 to 2017 to explore the impact of environmental regulation on industrial employment and its internal transmission mechanism with the help of GMM and intermediary effect model.It’s found that there is a U-shaped dynamic relationship between environmental regulation and industrial employment in the region.The current regulation intensity is in descending phase which means that the strengthening of it will bring about employment loss.Compared with high-pollution areas,intensity of environmental regulation in low pollution areas is closer to the inflection point of the curve,which is easier to obtain industrial employment welfare.Production cost and technological innovation,as inhibitory roles,are not conducive to the release of employment welfare.