中国精准扶贫政策及财政支出的减贫效应评估

Evaluation on Poverty Reduction Effect of China's Targeted Poverty Alleviation Policies and Fiscal Expenditures

文章使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,研究了中国精准扶贫的政策效应,利用基于再中心化影响函数的无条件分位数回归方法,考察了精准扶贫政策相对于以往的扶贫政策在不同收入层次的贫困人口中的异质性影响,并进一步研究了财政对助力农村减贫的作用机制以及作用效果。研究结果表明:受政策影响个体的人均家庭纯收入受到精准扶贫政策显著正向的影响,但政策效应对不同贫困程度的人口存在异质性影响;从财政支出的减贫收入效应来看,经济性财政支出和社会性财政支出均对农村减贫产生了正向影响,而转移性财政支出只对部分收入最低的贫困人口有显著为正的影响,对收入水平较高的贫困人口的收入有抑制作用。

This paper uses data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)to study the effects of China's targeted poverty alleviation policies,and then employs the unconditional quantile regression method based on the re-centered influence function to investigate the heterogeneous effects of targeted poverty alleviation policies on the poor population at different income levels compared with the previous poverty alleviation policies.Finally the paper makes further researches on the effect mechanism and effect of finance on rural poverty reduction.The results show that the per capita net household income of policy-affected individuals is significantly and positively affected by the targeted poverty alleviation policy,but the policy effect has heterogeneous effect on the population at different poverty levels,that from the perspective of income effect of fiscal expenditure on poverty reduction,both economic fiscal expenditure and social fiscal expenditure have a positive impact on rural poverty reduction,but that transfer fiscal expenditure only has a significant positive effect on some poor people with the lowest income,and has a restraining effect on the income of poor people with higher income.