考虑下游损失的尾矿库溃坝风险评价研究

Study on Dam Break Risk Assessment of Tailings Pond Considering Downstream Losses

为准确评价尾矿库溃坝风险等级,综合考虑尾矿库溃坝的可能性与造成的后果损失,将下游人口数量、下游基础设施、下游环境敏感保护目标和尾砂毒性4个指标纳入指标体系,建立了考虑下游损失的尾矿库溃坝风险指标体系,采用改进AHP-EWM法计算各个指标综合权重,并以某尾矿库为例开展模糊综合评价。研究结果表明:考虑下游损失与不考虑下游损失的尾矿库溃坝风险等级分别为一般风险和低风险,所构建的指标体系较科学,可准确评估出尾矿库所面临的真实风险状态,从而为尾矿库的溃坝风险评价与安全管理工作提供参考。

In order to accurately evaluate the risk level of tailings dam break,this paper comprehensively considers the possibility of tailings dam break and the resulting losses,and then incorporates the four indexes of downstream population,downstream infrastructure,downstream environmental sensitive protection targets and tailings toxicity into the index system.Based on it,this paper establishes the risk index system of tailings dam break considering the downstream losses,and uses the improved AHP-EWM method to calculate the comprehensive weight of each index,and then takes a tailings pond as an example to carry out fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The results show that:the risk level of dam break of tailings pond considering downstream losses and not considering downstream losses is general risk and low risk respectively.The index system established in this paper is more scientific,which can accurately assess the real risk state of tailings pond,and provide reference for the risk assessment and safety management of tailings dam break.