企业危机自我披露对于股票反应的影响——基于中国A股上市公司220份安全事故公告的实证研究

Influence of firm crisis self-disclosure on stock reaction:Empirical research based on 220 safety accident announcements of Chinese A-share listed firms

以信号理论和情境危机沟通理论为研究基础,搜集2007~2018年中国A股上市公司的220起安全事故公告并量化其内容,通过事件研究法计算得出股票异常收益率及累计异常收益率,验证了在企业危机事故发生前后股票的消极反应过程.结合利益相关者对于环境不确定性的感知,利用多元回归法探究了利益相关者对于企业危机自我披露信息的反应过程.实证结果表明,在事故公告发布较短时间内,利益相关者对于人员损失、财产损失以及企业事故公告披露速度较关注,但是在较长时间后,事故未来不确定性的消极影响更强烈,因此利益相关者对于企业危机自我披露信息的反应过程是由影响不确定性、响应不确定性到状态不确定性.该研究结论有助于企业更好地利用危机响应策略降低危机所带来的损害,提高危机沟通能力.

Based on signal theory and situational crisis communication theory,the abnormal return rate and cumulative abnormal return rate of stocks were calculated by event study method,and the negative reaction process of stocks before and after firm crisis accident was verified.Here 220 safety accident announcements of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2007 to 2018 were collected and quantified as samples.In addition,based on stakeholders’perception of environmental uncertainty,the multi-regression method was used to explore the process of stakeholders’response to the self-disclosure of firm crisis.The empirical results show that within a short period after the announcement,stakeholders are more concerned about the loss of personnel,property damage and the response speed of firms.But after a long time,the negative stock reaction to the future uncertainty is stronger.Therefore,the sequence of stakeholders’response to the self-disclosure of firm crisis is from influence uncertainty,response uncertainty to state uncertainty.The conclusion helps firms to make better use of crisis response strategies to reduce the damage and improve the ability of crisis communication.