全球金融危机背景下我国妇幼健康水平变化趋势分析

Analysis on the Changing Trend of Maternal and Child Health in China Under the Background of Global Economic Crisis

目的:探索全球金融危机背景下妇幼健康指标的短期与长期变化趋势,为进一步提升妇幼健康水平提供参考。方法:基于1991-2018年宏观时间序列数据,在考虑宏观经济指标的前提下,采用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)与误差修正模型(ECM)进行分析。结果:长期来看,金融危机虚拟变量仅对5岁以下儿童死亡率具有显著影响,回归系数为-7.332。短期来看,新生儿死亡率在全球金融危机当期及滞后一、二期的回归系数皆为负值,但5岁以下儿童死亡率、婴儿死亡率及孕产妇死亡率的回归系数会在滞后一期或滞后二期时由正转负。结论:全球金融危机背景下,妇幼健康水平既有积极变化又有消极变化,且在短期内经历了一个从恶化到改善的过程,国内经济回暖及新医改的开展都可能是导致出现这种变化的原因。

Objective:To explore the short and long term trends of maternal and child health indicators under the background of the global economic crisis,so as to provide references for further improving maternal and child health level.Methods:Based on a macro time series data from 1991 to 2018,through taking macroeconomic indicators into account,Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model(ARDL)and Error Correction Model(ECM)were established to analyze the changing trend.Results:In the long term,the global economic crisis dummy variable only had a significant impact on the mortality rate of children under five,with a coefficient of-7.332.In the short term,the coefficients of newborn mortality rate were all negative in the current,first lag and second lag periods of the global economic crisis,while the coefficients of under-five mortality,infant mortality,and maternal mortality would turn from positive to negative in the first or second lag periods.Conclusion:Under the background of the global economic crisis,maternal and child health had both positive and negative changes.Maternal and child health had undergone a process from deterioration to improvement in the short term.The recovery of the domestic economy and the new round of health care reform may be the reasons for this change.