食物消费结构对耕地需求的影响--来自广东省的经验证据

Impact of Food Consumption Patterns on Land Requirements——Evidence from Guangdong Province

基于1985~2018年广东省城乡居民10类食物消费数据,研究食物消费结构对耕地需求的影响。首先运用AIDS模型对比分析城乡居民食物消费需求弹性,其次计算城乡居民食物消费耕地需求,最后预测未来广东省城乡居民食物消费结构及其耕地需求变化趋势。研究表明,城乡居民粮食、食用植物油和鲜蛋人均消费量达到一定饱和度,随着收入水平提高,城镇居民动物性食物消费仍高于农村居民;食物消费结构对耕地需求影响明显,2018年广东省城乡居民动物性食物人均耕地需求占总耕地需求半数以上,且农村居民食物消费人均耕地需求明显大于城镇居民;据预测,城乡居民肉类、禽类和鲜奶消费量呈显著上升趋势,未来广东省城乡居民食物消费耕地需求将不断增加,主要由动物性食物生产耕地构成,农村居民食物消费耕地需求增速快于城市居民。基于此,提出实行差别化营养干预措施,提高饲料粮供给能力,建立食物消费与农业生产结构良性互动耦合机制等政策建议。

Consumption sample data of urban and rural residents'ten kinds of food from 1985 to 2018 in Guangdong Province were used to study the impact of food consumption patterns on land demand.Firstly,AIDS(an almost ideal demand system)was adopted to analyze to the demand elasticity.Secondly,the land requirement of food consumption patterns was calculated.Lastly,the trend of food consumptions and its land requirement of urban and rural residents in Guangdong Province were forecasted.The results suggested that per capita consumption of grain,vegetable oil and eggshad reached a certain degree of saturation.The urban residents'consumption of animal products would still higher than rural residents with rising rise of income levels.Food consumption patterns had a significant impact on land requirements.The per capita land requirement for animal products was accounted for more than half of the total land demand of urban and rural residents in 2018.The per capita land requirement of food consumption for rural residents was markedly greater than urban residents.According to the forecast,the consumption of meat,poultry and dairy of urban and rural residents would have a rising tendency.The land requirement of food consumption basically consisted of land requirements for animal products of urban and rural residents would grow.The land requirement of food consumption of rural residents would grow faster than that of the urban residents.Based on the conclusion,some suggestions were put forward,such as implementing differential nutrition intervention measures,improving feed grain supply capacity,and establishing a benign interaction coupling mechanism between food consumption and agricultural production structure.