北斗卫星导航系统的扩散特征与创新代理路径研究

Research on the Diffusion Characteristics and Innovation Agency Paths of Beidou Satellite Navigation System

从创新扩散理论视角出发,对北斗卫星导航系统的创新属性、扩散特征及创新路径进行考察,能够折射出当前阶段中国重大研发工程的产业实践进程,具有重要的理论与实践意义。本文通过实证访谈,获得主要结论如下:①北斗卫星导航系统在相对优势、兼容性、复杂性、可试性与可观察性等方面表现出显著的创新属性特征,加速了潜在用户的决策与采纳进程;②当前阶段北斗用户数量随时间的变化情态正处于创新扩散S形曲线的快速增长区,但仍未达到峰值,北斗用户数量的未来增长情势与产业体系容量值得期待。创新扩散理论中钟形曲线对采纳者的分类仍然适用于对北斗卫星导航系统采纳者的划分;③中国政府在北斗卫星导航系统的扩散进程中扮演着“创新代理人”的重要职能与角色。

This research starts from the theory of innovation diffusion and investigates the innovation attributes,diffusion and innovative agency characteristics of the Beidou satellite navigation system.The main conclusions are as follows.①The Beidou satellite navigation system has shown remarkable innovative attributes in terms of relative advantages,compatibility,complexity,testability and observability,which has accelerated the decision-making and adoption process of the public or organizations;②At the current stage,the number of users of Beidou is in the rapid growth zone of the S-curve of innovation diffusion over time,but it has not yet reached the peak.The future growth of the number of Beidou users and the industrial capacity are worth looking forward to.The bell curve classification of adopters in the innovation diffusion theory still apply to the classification of adopters of Beidou satellite navigation system;③The Chinese government plays an important function and role as an“innovative agent”in the proliferation of the Beidou satellite navigation system.