以变应万变?经济政策不确定性对企业战略变革的影响探析

Respond to change with change?Study on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise strategic change

外部环境会塑造企业战略是战略管理领域共识之一。然而,外部经济政策环境与战略变革间的逻辑关系却未受到应有的重视。以经济政策不确定性为切入点,基于根据战略变革的适应观与机遇观,本文从经济政策环境视角重新审视了企业战略变革,并考察了经营期望落差、分析师期望落差以及冗余资源在其间的调节作用。基于2010—2017年中国A股上市公司样本,本文发现:第一,经济政策不确定性会促进企业战略变革。第二,随着经营期望落差的扩大,经济政策不确定性对战略变革的促进作用将增强,但随着分析师期望落差的扩大以及冗余资源的增加,经济政策不确定性对战略变革的促进作用将削弱。本文丰富了经济政策不确定性领域和企业战略变革领域的研究成果,同时也为企业积极调整战略来动态匹配经济政策环境提供了相关依据。

The external environment could shape the enterprise strategy has become a consensus,but the logical relationship between the external economic policy environment and strategic change has not received due attention.Based on the adaptation view and opportunity view of strategic change,this study re-examines enterprise strategic change from the perspective of economic policy uncertainty,and further examines the contextual role of performance-aspiration shortfall,analyst-aspiration shortfall and slack resources.Taking 2010-2017 China A-share listed companies as the research object,based on fixed effects model,we found that:First,economic policy uncertainty will promote enterprise strategic change;Second,with the expansion of performance-aspiration shortfall,the promotion effect will be enhanced.However,with the expansion of analyst-aspiration shortfall and the increase of slack resources,the effect of economic policy uncertainty in promoting strategic change will be weakened.The theoretical contributions are as follows:First,it enriches and expands the research on strategic change from the perspective of economic policy environment.Most of the previous studies have regarded the external economic policy environment as the research background.Although a few scholars have paid attention to the impact of specific economic policies such as monetary policy on strategic change,there are still limitations such as the assumption that economic policies are stable and predictable.This study demonstrates the role of economic policy uncertainty in promoting enterprise strategic change,effectively offsets previous research limitations,and helps to more deeply and systematically interpret enterprise strategic change from the perspective of external economic policy environment.Second,different from previous studies focusing on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate innovation,corporate investment,this study focuses on the problem of corporate strategic change in strategic management theory and explored the overall level impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate strategic change.This study not only deepens the understanding of the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and corporate behavior,but also enriches the research on the consequences of economic policy uncertainty and provides more complete empirical evidence for the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and corporate strategic behavior.Third,this study highlights the significant role of performance-aspiration shortfall and slack resources in deeper understanding of corporate strategic change decisions.On the one hand,performance-driven strategic change is one of the main ideas in the field of strategic change research,but previous research mainly focused on the impact of absolutely poor performance on strategic change.As a supplement and extension of previous research,this study supplements the knowledge of how relatively poor performance indirectly shapes the knowledge of corporate strategic change decisions from the perspective of performance-aspiration shortfall and analystaspiration shortfall.Not only helps to clarify the boundaries of economic policy′s impact on corporate strategic change,but also helps to comprehensively and systematically recognize the role of corporate performance in strategic change decisions.On the other hand,the current research model of"economic policy uncertainty—strategic behavior of enterprises"generally ignores the most basic resources factors affecting corporate strategic behavior.This study completes research by incorporating slack resources into the analysis framework.Fourth,previous studies have focused on the logical relationship between internal factors and strategic changes in enterprises,or the impact of external factors on strategic changes in enterprises.Studies on the interpretation of strategic changes based on internal and external factors are rare.This article combines the theory of emphasis on external forces and the perspective of endogenous power to interpret corporate strategic change decisions,which helps the literature to gain a deeper insight into external environmental factors(e.g.,uncertainty in economic policies)and internal factors(e.g.,performance-aspiration shortfall and slack resources)how to jointly shape corporate strategic change decisions.The practical implications are as follows:First,when making strategic change decisions,companies should not only consider economic policies as a background,thus ignoring its frequent volatility and instability.On the contrary,they need to be sensitive to the economic policies changes and then carefully examine current strategies.Second,in the process of actively implementing strategic changes in response to economic policy uncertainty,enterprises also need to pay attention to three key contextual factors:performance-aspiration shortfall,analyst-aspiration shortfall and slack resources,and identify their role in promoting or inhibiting the company′s strategic change behavior in response to uncertain environments.