主承销商网络中心度与IPO报价修订--影响机制、询价扩容及异质效应

Lead underwriter network centrality and IPO offer price revision:Influence mechanism,inquiry expansion and heterogeneous effect

本文基于社会网络关系的视角,揭示了主承销商对IPO报价修订的影响机制与效应。以2010年报价信息披露后的沪深A股IPO公司为研究对象,实证结果发现:主承销商网络中心度越高,IPO报价修订概率及程度越低,并存在向上修订的倾向。影响机制分析得出:网络中心度高的主承销商,具有较强的信息获取和传递能力,提高了IPO报价的准确性;主承销商通过向上修订来获取更多承销费用,但出于维护声誉的约束,网络中心度越高,IPO报价向上修订的幅度降低。进一步研究发现:我国2014年IPO询价对象扩容使市场化水平提高,政策效应减弱了主承销商网络中心度和IPO报价修订之间的关系,降低了IPO定价对主承销商的依赖程度;在民营企业以及意见分歧大、承销能力弱、市场情绪高时主承销商网络中心度对IPO报价修订的影响显著。研究结论对提高IPO信息披露与定价机制、规范承销商行为具有借鉴意义。

Capital market is the main channel for direct financing of a company.The gradual normalization of IPO in China,especially the Sci-Tech innovation board and its pilot registration system formally established in November 2018,promotes the process of direct financing of capital market.At present,China′s IPO pricing adopts the inquiry system of liberalized price-to-earnings ratio.Due to the distortion of pricing guidance rules,the capital market exists“three high”phenomena,that is,high P/E,high issue price and high over-raised funds.In this context,IPO offer-price revisions and upward revisions are particularly important.Although the inquiry object declaration and the analyst′s analysis and prediction of the IPO company are quite important,the lead underwriter plays a more central role in the IPO pricing process.According to the inquiry information,it will weigh the interests of investors,issuers and itself,and finally determine the revised direction and degree of IPO offer price.In the perspective of social network relationship,we reveal the mechanism and effect of the influence of social network relationship of the lead underwriter.This paper clarifies the mechanism and effect of the lead underwriter′s social network relationship,which is particularly important for clarifying the pricing rules of China′s IPO market and optimizing the pricing mechanism.This paper,pays attention to the decision-making mechanism of IPO price before listing,and clarifies the inquiry process of the lead underwriter from providing“new stock value analysis report”,determining the inquiry interval of the declared price to determining the final issue price.Based on the theory of social network relationship,and the information acquisition and transmission function of the lead underwriters,we explain the influence mechanism of the network of the lead underwriters on the IPO offer-price revision.In combination with recent trends in China of enthusiasm for“new”IPO market,from the acquisition of excess underwriting cost of interest motivation and reputation maintenance motivation,clarify the motive and restraint mechanism of IPO offer price upward revision.Based on the theoretical analysis,the research hypothesis is proposed:the lead underwriters have a high network center and abundant analyst resources,which can improve the accuracy of IPO offer price;the more information the lead underwriters obtain before the IPO filing,the less new information is released during the waiting period,and the less revised IPO offer price is;the high network centrality of the lead underwriters and the abundant customer resources mean that the underwriters have the ability to raise the IPO price moderately.When their information resources,relationship resources and reputation are high,the upward revision of the IPO price will be reduced to balance the interests of different participants.Based on the theory and method of social network,this paper introduces indexes of network centrality of lead underwriters,including lever center degree(Degree),the degree of Intermediary centrality(Between)and feature vector center degree(Evector),and comprehensive measurement indicators;the lead underwriter determines the inquiry range of the declared price in the pre-road show,if the quoted price of the qualified investor is in the inquiry interval during the roadshow,they are called the effective quote investor,and the average price calculated by the quoted price given by the effective investor is the declared price.The lead underwriter will make adjustment according to the declared price,and determine the final issue price by measuring the revised IPO offer by dividing the absolute difference between the IPO offering price and the declared price by the declared price;other variables are also controlled.Meanwhile,a Logit model will be constructed to test the possibility that the network centrality of the lead underwriter affects the revision of the IPO quote,and test the effect of the network centrality of the lead underwriter on the degree of IPO quote revision.In addition to the benchmark regression,in order to test the impact mechanism and policy effects,the interactive terms of the centrality of the lead underwriter,the company′s age and sponsorship rate were introduced for analysis.In addition,a heterogeneous analysis was carried out on the nature of property rights,differences of opinion,underwriting ability and market sentiment.Taking the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share IPO companies after the 2010 quote information disclosure as the research object,we empirically test the effect of the centrality of the lead underwriter network on the revision of IPO offer price,and finds that the higher the centrality of the lead underwriter network is,the lower the revision probability of the IPO offer price is and the smaller the revision degree is,and there is a tendency of upward revision.The high centrality of the lead underwriter network lies in its strong ability of information discovery and dissemination,which improves the accuracy of the IPO offer price.The lead underwriter obtains more underwriting fees through upward revision.However,due to the constraint of reputation maintenance,the higher the centrality of the lead underwriter network,the lower the upward revision of the IPO offer-price.The expansion of China′s IPO inquiry object in 2014 has improved the level of marketization.Due to the policy,it has weakened the relationship between the lead underwriter network center and the IPO offer-price revision,and reduced the dependence on the lead underwriter.The centrality of the lead underwriter network has a significant impact on private enterprises and on the revision of IPO offer-price with characteristics of large differenciation of opinions,weak underwriting ability and high market sentiment.This research has significance of being reference for improving the IPO information disclosure and pricing mechanism and standardizing the behavior of underwriters.The policy suggestions include:first,increase the information disclosure during the waiting period of IPO,and announce the reasons why the IPO offering price deviates from the declared price.Second,accelerate the process of market-oriented IPO pricing reform and promote the return of IPO pricing to the market.Third,improve the supervision mechanism,regulate the behavior of the underwriters,and increase the punishment for the transfer of benefits.