某导弹生产定型靶试数量的可靠性分析

Reliability Analyzing on Missile’s Number Using in Manufacture Finalization Firing Test

为了确定兼顾考核自主飞行可靠度的生产定型靶场试验所需导弹数量,首先介绍了使用方推荐的以成熟期目标值为检验下限设计的靶场试验方案,之后对不同可靠性的导弹通过推荐靶试方案的概率进行了定量分析。即使可靠性达到了目标值,导弹通过使用方推荐靶试方案的概率依然很小,进而指出以目标值作为检验下限设计的靶试方案不正确。生产定型靶试方案以既能考核可靠性最低可接受值又能对成熟期目标值摸底进行设计,按此原则确定了生产定型靶场试验所需导弹数量及允许的失败次数。

To determine the missile’s number using in the manufacture finalization firing test to examine the missile’s self-flying reliability.Firstly,the firing test scheme recommended by the consumer is introduced,which is designed under the condition that the maturity goal is taken as the lower test limit,then quantitatively analyzing the probabilities passing the recommended firing test scheme when the missile’s reliability is different.The probability passing the recommended firing test scheme is small even though the missile’s reliability is equal to the maturity goal,the reason is that the maturity goal be wrong taken as the lower test limit.The manufacture finalization firing test scheme should be designed according to the principle which the reliability minimum acceptable value be examined and whether the maturity goal can be reached or not,so that the missile’s number using in the manufacture finalization firing test and the failure number allowed are determined.