基于格点预报建立小麦、玉米、大豆和马铃薯播种、收获适宜气象条件等级预报模型

Establishing Prediction Model of Suitable Meteorological Conditions for Sowing and Harvesting Wheat,Corn,Soybean and Potato Based on Grid Forecasts

格点预报是精细化预报发展的必然趋势,将格点预报与现代农用天气预报相结合是提高气象为农服务精细化程度的一个重要途径。为此,以大兴安岭东部地区为例,利用扎兰屯农业气象监测站19782016年的播种(土壤施肥)、收获、喷药(肥)、灌溉活动记录日期和相应时段的气象资料,采用隶属函数方法,建立了基于格点预报的小麦、玉米、大豆和马铃薯播种、收获时适宜气象条件等级预报模型。根据多年实际农事活动日期的气象要素数据,确定了模型中各要素的权重系数;采用百分位法,确定了适宜气象等级划分指标;采用“一票否决”指标方法,确定了喷药(肥)、除草和灌溉农事活动的适宜气象等级的综合判定。对模型和指标的验证结果表明,建立的模型和指标均符合大兴安岭东部地区农事活动期对气象条件的要求。在此基础上,开发农用天气预报业务服务系统,通过CIMISS数据接口自动读取智能网格预报,将建立的模型和指标通过计算机自动计算,实现农事活动适宜气象条件等级的自动诊断判别和产品的自动生成,提高了农用天气预报的精准化和自动化水平。

Grid point forecasting is an inevitable trend in the development of refined forecasting.Combining grid point forecasting with modern agricultural weather forecasting is a significant way to improve the level of meteorological service for agricultural production.Taking the eastern part of the Great Khingan as an example,this study,based on grid prediction,uses the date of seeding(soil fertilization),harvesting,spraying(fertilizer),irrigation activity from the Zhalantun Agricultural Meteorological Monitoring Station and the relevant meteorological data from 1978 to 2016,and establishes a suitable meteorological condition model for the sowing and harvest of wheat,corn,soybean,potato by the membership function method.The weight coefficient of each element in the model is determined by the meteorological element data of the actual agricultural activity date.The suitable grade index is determined by percentile method,and the comprehensive determination of suitable meteordogical grade for spraying(fertilizer),weeding and irrigation agricultural activities are determined by the method of“one vote against meaning veto”.At the same time,the model and indicators are verified and the results show that the established models and indicators are in line with the requirements of meteorological conditions during the agricultural activities in the eastern part of the Great Khingan.On this basis,the agriculture weather forecast service system is developed to access the intelligent grid forecast automatically through the CIMISS data interface.The established models and indicators are automatically calculated by computer to realize the automatic diagnosis and classification of the suitable weather level of the agricultural activities and the automatic generation of products.In this way,the accuracy and automation of agricultural weather forecasts can be improved.