2019年西北太平洋台风活动特征和预报难点分析

Analysis on the Characteristics of Typhoon Activity and Forecasting Difficulties in Western North Pacific in 2019

2019年在西北太平洋及南海共生成台风29个,比多年同期平均偏多2个,其中6个台风登陆我国,比多年平均偏少1个;台风整体强度偏弱,但全年最强台风夏浪极值强度达到68 m·s^(-1)(17级以上);登陆台风整体强度偏弱,但“利奇马”登陆强度强(52 m·s^(-1),超强台风级)、影响重;秋季台风生成数较常年明显偏多,尤其是11月生成台风数达到6个。2019年中央气象台台风路径预报平均误差与近5年(2014—2018年)的平均误差相比,在24~72 h的预报误差有所增大,而96~120 h的预报误差则明显减小,尤其是120 h的预报准确率创新高。与日、美官方预报相比,中国在24 h和96~120 h的预报水平处于领先地位,在48~72 h的预报误差比日本略高,但低于美国,与EC确定性模式相当。

A total of 29 typhoons were generated over western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2019,2 more than the multi-year average of 27 in the same period,of which 6 typhoons landed in China,1 less than the normal average of 7 in the same period.The overall strength of the landfall typhoon was weak rela-tively,but the landfall intensity of“Lekima”was strong(52 m·s^(-1)),reaching the scale of super typhoon.Autumn typhoons were obviously more,especially,there were 6 typhoons in November,the most typhoons in November since 1949.Compared with the average error of the past 5 years(2014-2018),the typhoon track forecast error by the National Meteorological Centre in 2019,was increased in the 24-72 h forecast,while the forecast error of 96-120 h was greatly reduced.Compared with JMA(Japan Meteorological Agency)and the JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center),CMA is in the leading position in the prediction level of 24 h and 96-120 h,the prediction error of 48-72 h is equivalent to the EC deterministic model,slightly higher than that of JMA,but lower than that of the JTWC.