一致性分数阶离散灰色模型的构造与应用

Construction and Application of Conformable Fractional Discrete Grey Model

在一致性分数阶累加生成算子和传统的离散灰色预测模型的基础上,提出了一种基于一致性分数阶累加生成的离散灰色预测模型,即CFDGM(1,1)模型,并给出了该模型具体的求解过程.参数选择方面,运用粒子群算法(PSO)实现一致性分数阶阶数的最优搜索.最后,运用CFDGM(1,1)模型对印度风力发电发累计装机容量数据进行实证分析.结果表明,所提出的模型具有较高的拟合精度和预测精度,且形式相对简单.

In this paper,based on the conformable fractional order accumulation operator and the traditional discrete grey prediction model,a discrete grey prediction model based on conformable fractional order accumulation generation,namely CFDGM(1,1) model,is proposed,and the concrete solving process of the model is given.In the aspect of parameter selection,particle swarm optimization(PSO) is used to realize the optimal search of conformable fractional order.Finally,this paper uses the CFDGM(1,1) model to analyze the cumulative installed wind turbine capacity data in India.The results show that the model proposed in this paper has high fitting accuracy and prediction accuracy,and the form is relatively simple.