基于GM-ES的旅游型城镇三生空间耦合协调度预测

Prediction of Spatial Coupling Coordination Degree of "Production,Life and Ecology" in Tourism Town Based on GM-ES

旅游型城镇三生空间协调发展问题备受业界关注,以典型旅游型城镇二道白河镇为例,构建耦合协调度评价模型,分析时序演变规律,对比灰色GM(1.1)模型、三次指数平滑法(ES)及GM-ES组合模型的预测结果及相关误差值,选用精度较高的GM-ES组合模型对2020-2024年耦合协调度进行预测,研究表明GM-ES组合模型预测准确性较高,较好地呈现出二道白河镇三生空间发展趋势,为二道白河镇及同类型旅游型城镇研究和调控三生空间耦合协调发展提供有益参考.

The coordinated development of the "production life and ecology" space in tourism cities and towns has attracted the attention of the industry,taking Erdaobaihe Town,a typical tourist town,as an example,this paper constructs an evaluation model of coupling coordination degree and analyzes the evolution law of time series,by comparing the prediction results and related error values of grey GM(1.1) model,cubic exponential smoothing method(ES) and GM-ES combination model,the GM-ES combination model with high precision is selected to predict the coupling coordination degree from 2020 to 2024,the results show that the GM-ES combination model has high prediction accuracy,which shows the spatial development trend of the "production life and ecology" space in Erdaobaihe town,it provides a useful reference for Erdaobaihe town and the same type of tourism towns to study and control the spatial coupling and coordinated development of the "production life and ecology" space.