基于灰色模型的天津市住宅项目人工费预测研究

Study on Labor Cost Forecast of Tianjin Housing Project Based on Grey Model

通过实证分析灰色预测GM(1,1)模型在天津市BJ单位投标报价中的成功应用,表明该方法在人工成本管控中有较大的应用价值.以2017-2020年天津市住宅项目建安工程造价人工费为原始数据,通过构建GM(1,1)模型预测2021-2025年天津市住宅项目人工费价格,通过预测发现未来5年人工费价格呈现上涨趋势.结果表明,人工费GM(1,1)预测模型应用于天津市建筑企业对人工的管理具有重要的参考意义,促使本地建筑企业进一步优化人工成本的管控,保障企业利润最大化.

Through the empirical analysis of the successful application of grey prediction GM(1,1) model in the bidding quotation of BJ units in Tianjin,it shows that this method has great application value in labor cost control.In this paper,the labor cost of Tianjin residential project construction and installation project during 2017-2020 is taken as the original data,and the labor cost price of Tianjin residential project during 2021-2025 is predicted by constructing GM(1,1) model,and it is found that the labor cost price in the next five years will show an upward trend.The results show that the application of GM(1,1) forecast model for labor cost in Tianjin construction enterprises has an important reference significance for labor management,prompting local construction enterprises to further optimize the control of labor cost and ensure the maximization of enterprise profits.