区域数字贸易规则对ICT产品贸易流量的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Regional Digital Trade Rules on Trade Flows of ICT Products

作为数字经济的依托,信息通信技术(ICT)在世界经济中占据着举足轻重的地位。鉴于ICT产品生产全球化的特征,其贸易规模和种类决定了一国参与全球价值链的程度。在数字经济时代,ICT产品贸易除了受到关税措施的影响外,新兴的数字贸易规则对其产生的影响不容忽视。目前,WTO建立统一的数字贸易规则遭遇困境,而区域贸易协定(RTA)中的数字贸易规则不断繁衍生息,演变为数字贸易规则的先驱。为探索RTA数字贸易规则对ICT产品贸易的影响,文章以APEC成员间59个RTA为研究对象,考察RTA数字贸易规则对ICT产品贸易流量的影响程度、作用途径和类别差异。结果显示,RTA数字贸易规则对ICT产品贸易流量具有明显的提升作用且结果稳健。分解ICT产品贸易二元边际进行检验发现,这种促进作用来自于集约边际而非扩展边际;区分数字贸易规则类别发现,电子商务和数据流动条款的促进作用最为明显;区分不同国家检验发现,相较于发达国家,发展中国家RTA数字贸易规则对ICT产品贸易促进作用更强;区分ICT产品种类发现,半导体产品贸易受RTA数字贸易规则影响更大;区分RTA成员数量发现,多成员RTA中的数字贸易规则比双边RTA对ICT产品贸易的影响程度更显著。

As the basis of digital economy,information and communication technology(ICT)plays an important role in the world economy.Given the global nature of ICT product production,the size and type of trade determines the extent to which a country participates in GVCS.In the era of digital economy,ICT products trade is not only affected by tariff measures,but also affected by emerging digital trade rules.At present,the WTO has encountered difficulties in establishing uniform digital trade rules,while the digital trade rules in regional Trade Agreements(RTA)have been multiplying and evolving into the forerunner of digital trade rules.In order to explore the impact of RTA digital trade rules on ICT product trade,this paper takes 59 RTAs among APEC members as research objects to investigate the impact of RTA digital trade rules on ICT product trade flow to the extent,the way of action,and the difference in category.The results show that RTA digital trade rules can significantly improve the ICT product trade flow,and the results are robust.By analyzing the binary marginal of ICT product trade,it is found that the promotion effect comes from the intensive marginal rather than the extended marginal.It is found that e-commerce and data flow clauses are the most significant facilitators of digital trade rules.The results show that RTA digital trade rules in developing countries have a stronger role in promoting ICT products trade than those in developed countries.Semiconductor product trade is more influenced by RTA digital trade rules.The digital trade rules in multi-member RTAs have a more significant impact on ICT product trade than bilateral RTAs.