中国通货膨胀对全球产出缺口的敏感性研究——基于经济政策不确定视角

China’s Inflation and Global Output Gap:The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty

基于附加预期的菲利普斯曲线,研究了我国和全球经济政策不确定性在改变我国通货膨胀(以下简称“通胀”)对国际因素敏感性方面的作用。研究发现:(1)相比于全球产出缺口,我国产出缺口对国内通胀的影响较大;动态分析显示,全球产出缺口对我国通胀的影响呈现下降趋势,而国内产出缺口的影响较为稳定;(2)我国或全球的经济政策不确定性不会显著改变我国通胀对全球产出缺口的敏感性,但二者协同程度的高低会负向影响我国通胀对全球产出缺口的敏感性。建议科学研判国际因素的外溢性和国内外经济形势的协同性,保持政策定力,注重引导市场预期,维持物价基本稳定,以支持经济高质量发展。

Based on the Phillips curve with additional expectation,this paper studies the role of China’s and global economic policy uncertainty in changing the sensitivity of China’s inflation to international factors.The results show that:(1)compared with the global output gap,China’s output gap has a greater impact on domestic inflation;dynamic analysis shows that the impact of global output gap on China’s inflation shows a downward trend,while the impact of domestic output gap is relatively stable;(2)China’s or global economic policy uncertainty will not significantly change the sensitivity of China’s inflation to global output gap,However,the degree of synergy will negatively affect the sensitivity of China’s inflation to the global output gap.It is suggested that the monetary authorities should scientifically study and judge the spillover of international factors and the synergy of domestic and foreign economic situations,maintain policy firmness,pay attention to guiding market expectations,and maintain the basic stability of prices,so as to support high-quality development.