联程中转旅客的城市枢纽间换乘行为建模

Modeling of transfer behavior between urban hubs of intermodal passengers

针对旅客联程运输中旅客中转换乘行为,构建了多项Logit(Multinomial Logit,MNL)模型进行刻画分析.首先,设计了陈述偏好(Stated Preference,SP)调查问卷进行数据采集;其次,基于MNL模型对联程中转旅客的城市枢纽间换乘行为进行建模,并利用Biogeme软件对模型参数进行标定;最后,计算出各方式的分担率并与实际调查结果进行对比分析.结果表明:与出行目的、行李大小等因素相比,联程旅客个人特征(年龄、职业、收入等)的影响最为显著,考虑了旅客个人差异的MNL模型拟合误差在1.5%以内;此外,旅客对交通工具拥挤度、舒适度、班次数量以及准时性的关注程度也影响了其选择行为;联运旅客对时间效率尤为关注,超过50%的联运旅客选择地铁,当公交出行时间下调0%~20%时,可以一定程度上将换乘地铁的联运客流转移至公交上.研究结果对于枢纽间换乘需求预测、多方式协同调度以及提供旅客个性化出行服务具有一定的参考作用.

A Multinomial Logit(MNL)model is constructed to describe and analyze the transfer behavior of passengers in intermodal transportation.Firstly,a Stated Preference(SP)questionnaire is designed for data collection.Secondly,the MNL model is used to model the transfer behavior between urban hubs of the intermodal passengers,and the model parameters are calibrated using Biogeme software.Finally,the sharing rate of each mode is calculated and compared with the actual survey results.The results show that the influence of personal characteristics(such as age,occupation and income)of the intermodal passengers is the most significant compared with factors like the travel purpose and luggage size.The fitting error of the MNL model,which considers the individual difference of passengers,is less than 1.5%.In addition,the attention of passengers to the congestion,comfort,number of departures and punctuality of transport also affects their choices.Intermodal passengers are particularly concerned about time efficiency.More than 50%of intermodal passengers choose subway.When the bus travel time is reduced by 0%-20%,the intermodal passenger flow that moves towards subway can be transferred to bus to a certain degree.The results of the study can be used as a reference for the forecast of inter-hub transfer demand,multimodal coordinated scheduling and personalized travel service.