长安缘何米贵?中国地区间相对价格水平研究

Why is Chang’an so Expensive?A Study of Regional Relative Price Levels in China

基于跨国情形的实际汇率理论是否适用于分析一国内部价格水平的地区差异问题,一直存在较大争议,本文通过研究中国地区间相对价格水平的基本规律及形成机理,为该争议提供新的思路。本文完全基于微观商品价格数据测算了2006-2018年全国56个城市的相对价格水平,通过计量分析证实中国存在国内宾大效应;随后提出了基于劳动力和生产率异质性的国内巴萨理论模型,该模型从实际汇率视角出发并纳入新经济地理学中的集聚效应因素,以房租为重要传导中介,证明即使在一国内部劳动力可以跨区域自由流动的情况下,经典巴萨理论的"生产率-工资-价格"形成机制依然成立,但造成地区间价格水平差异的主导因素由制造业变成生产性服务业的生产率差异;最后本文通过计量分析验证了上述猜想。

There has been much controversy regarding whether relative price levels among regions within a country can be explained by the real exchange rate theory.To shed light on the above controversy,this paper studies the characteristics and determinants of inter-regional relative price levels among China.First,it calculates the relative price levels of 56 cities across the country between 2006 and 2018 based on micro-price data,and confirms that the Intra-national Penn effect is significant within China.Second,from the perspective of real exchange rate theory and by incorporating the"agglomeration effect"of the new economic geography theory,this paper proposes a domestic"Balassa-Samuelson(BS)effect"theoretical model based on the labour and productivity heterogeneity.It proves that even in a country with the free labour mobility,the"productivity-wage-price nexus"of the classical BS theory still remains in place.However,the main leading factor has shifted from manufacturing to the producer service industry.The above conjectures are validated through empirical evidence.