北京市居民区中蚊虫密度与气象因素关系的研究

RELATIONSHIP OF METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS TO MOSQUITO DENSITY IN RESIDENTIAL AREAS OF BEIJING

本研究对北京市居民区内蚊虫密度与气象因素之间的关系进行了回归分析与预测。基于北京市居民区内蚊虫密度分布规律探索,分析了气象因素与居民区内蚊虫密度关系,并利用多元线性回归方法对于各个区域的居民区蚊虫密度进行了预测。结果表明,受全球气候变暖的影响,北京全市多数居民区都呈现蚊虫密度上升的趋势,少数城区居民区内蚊虫密度表现出下降的趋势。北京不同区域的居民区中,城区平均蚊虫密度依次要高于近郊和远郊。与北京市居民区蚊虫密度呈正相关的气象因素有气温、湿度、降水量,负相关的因素包括风速与气压。通过多元线性回归建模,结果认为运用与蚊虫密度相关的气象因素可以较好地预测部分城区居民区中的蚊虫密度,对于做好北京市居民区的蚊虫密度预测与精准防控工作有着较好的指导作用。

To clarify the relationship of meteorological factors to the mosquito density in residential areas(MDRA)of Beijing by regression and prediction analysis.Based on the research of distribution of MDRA in Beijing to analyze the relationship of meteorological factors to the MDRA,and predict the mosquito density in residential areas of each region by multiple linear regression method.As the results shown,MDRA in some districts decreased in spite of that most MDRA increased under global warming background.The MDRA in downtown was shown higher than those in suburbs and exurbs of Beijing.As for MDRA,the climate factors,such as temperature,humidity,and amount of precipitation were positively relative,while the wind speed and atmospheric pressure were negatively linked.Based on multiple linear regression modeling,the meteorological factors related to mosquito density might reasonably be used to predict MDRA in some residential areas of Beijing,which would guide the precise prevention and control of mosquitoes in Beijing.