全球化时代的病毒流行对宏观经济的影响机制分析

The Analysis of the Impact Mechanism of the Virus Epidemic on Macroeconomics in the Globalization Era

新冠疫情突如其来并持续蔓延,给我国宏观经济造成了巨大冲击。分析得出新冠疫情存在三个特点:传染力极强,传播范围极广,初期症状轻微。对经济全球化理论、经济地理的相关理论和IS-LM模型做文献回顾,得出提升经济距离、降低经济联系是疫情影响到宏观经济的重要机制的结论。以2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行为例,选取2004—2018年中国、美国、英国、日本和欧盟作为样本做实证检验,验证上述结论,并提出世界都应当以扩张型财政政策和货币政策作为应对疫情冲击的手段。

The sudden and continuous spread of covid-19 has caused a huge impact on macro economy.This article first analyzes the three characteristics of covid-19:strong contagion,wide spread,and mild initial symptoms;Afterwards,we do a literature review of economic globalization theory,related theories of economic geography,and IS-LM model is also concluded,The theory that increasing economic distance and reducing economic ties are important mechanisms by which the epidemic affects the macroeconomic;Then,we take the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic as an example,the 2004-2018 China,the United States,the United Kingdom,Japan and the European Union which were selected as the sample has been empirically tested to verify the above conclusions;In the end,we stated that the world should adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policies as the means to respond to the impact of the epidemic.