中国对RCEP成员国出口贸易潜力及影响因素研究——基于扩展贸易引力模型

Study on the Export Trade Potential of China to RCEP Member States and Influencing Factors: Based on the Extended Trade Gravity Model

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》的签署是中国对外贸易发展过程中的一座里程碑,更是中国在国际贸易领域继加入WTO以来的第二大事件。RCEP的成立有利于推动"国内国际双循环"框架中"国际"一环的发展,同时也将在提高亚太地区经济一体化水平、打击贸易保护主义及逆全球化势力等问题上产生巨大影响。基于扩展贸易引力模型的视角,依托中国与RCEP成员国现有的商贸基础,研究中国对RCEP成员国的出口贸易潜力,分析影响出口的有关因素,并据此提出相关政策性建议。

The signing of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement(RCEP) is a milestone in the development of China’s foreign trade. It is also the second major event in China’s international trade field after its accession to WTO. The establishment of RCEP is conducive to the development of the "international" part of the "domestic and international dual cycle" framework. Meanwhile, it will have a huge impact on improving the level of economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region and combating trade protectionism and anti-globalization forces.Based on the perspective of expanded trade gravity model and the trade basis among China and RCEP member states, the study researches the export trade potential of China to RCEP member states, analyzes the factors affecting the export, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions accordingly.