气候变化对龙刘梯级水库群发电量的影响

Impact of Climate Change on Power Generation of Longyangxia and Liujiaxia Cascade Reservoirs

气候变化和人类活动共同导致流域或区域水资源供需矛盾加剧。面对日益加剧的气候变化,厘清气候变化对梯级水库群发电调度规则的影响十分重要。以黄河上游龙刘梯级水库群为研究对象,首先,采用Mann-Kendall突变检验方法对梯级水库控制断面唐乃亥和小川水文站径流序列进行突变检验,在此基础上构建黄河上游融雪径流模型(HBV),并对其进行模型参数校准和验证;其次,采用统计降尺度方法(SDSM)对2种气候模式(CanESM2和GFDLESM2G)下的3种气候变化情景(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)进行降尺度处理,并模拟未来黄河上游径流量;最后,构建黄河上游梯级水库群发电量最大模型,揭示气候变化对梯级水库群发电量的影响。结果表明,黄河上游唐乃亥和小川水文站的径流突变年份分别为1989年和1985年。不同气候模式下未来枯水期径流量均显著减少,丰水期显著增加。气候变化将导致未来近期梯级水库群发电量增加,远期增加不显著。

Climate change and high-intensity human activities together lead to the aggravation of the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in the basin or region. In the face of increasing climate change, it is very important and necessary to clarify the impact of climate change on the power generation operation rules of cascade reservoirs in the future. Therefore, firstly, Mann-Kendall method was used to test the abrupt change of runoff series of Tangnaihai and Xiaochuan hydrological stations in the upper reaches of the Yellow River. On this basis, considering that the upper reaches of the Yellow River is an alpine climate region, a snowmelt runoff model(HBV) was constructed and its parameters were calibrated and verified. Secondly, the statistical downscaling method(SDSM) was used to analyze two climate models(CanESM2 and GFDLESM2 G). Three climate change scenarios(RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were downscaled to simulate the water resources of the upper Yellow River in the future. Finally, the maximum power generation model of cascade reservoirs in the upper Yellow River was constructed to reveal the impact of climate change on the power generation and operation of cascade reservoirs. The results show that the abrupt change years of Tangnaihai and Xiaochuan hydrological stations in the upper Yellow River are 1989 and 1985 respectively. Under different climate models, the runoff in the future will be decreased significantly in the dry season and increased significantly in the wet season. Climate change will lead to a significant increase in the power generation of cascade reservoirs in the near future and a nonsignificant increase in the long term.