摘要
In vast farms management,especially in multi-crop cultivation case,planning for a combination of crops cultivation has always been of high importance to achieve the maximum income,by taking into account imposed limitations and the risk of different activities.According to the fact that in traditional models of farm programming because of not attention to risk,its results differ from what farmer do in reality,considering the risk farm programming should be well thought.MOTAD model(Minimization of the Total Absolute Deviation)is a mathematic programming model that enters risk into decision making related to farm activities and provides different programs.A main feature of this model is that the risk is calculated by negative deviation from efficiency amount as total multiplication.In recent years,serious declining of water table problem forced Regional Water Corporation of West-Azerbaijan province to impose limitations for extra water use of wells in order to sustain"Mako,Poldasht"water resources.These limitations result in lowering available water level(The most important input for farming),and create changes in cropping patterns and income level of farmers in this area.The aim of this study is analyzing improved cropping considering water limitations and in risk conditions.Data have been collected from farmers and Agriculture"Jihad"Management of town of Mako for duration of 1387-1388.According to the results of the research,the real cultivation plan that is now being implemented throughout the region carries a high risk and low income.Based on results,if the farmer uses the optimal cultivation pattern during the so-called water access limitation,watermelon harvest will be excluded from the optimal cultivation pattern.Also,alfalfa will enter the cultivation plan with the expected income level of 1067 billion Rials(100 Rials=US$0.01).If the farmer uses improved cropping pattern in limitations in risk it will decrease total income as 171.36 billion Rials,to when the water limitations is not implemented.
