财务指标错估与股票定价偏误——基于证券分析师中介作用的视角

Miscalculation of Financial Indicators and Stock Pricing Bias:From the Perspective of Analysts'Intermediary Role

由于传统财务体系存在资本与资产概念混淆的缺陷,使得上市公司财务指标被错估,财务信息被严重扭曲。本文以2007~2018年中国A股上市公司为样本,实证检验收益率和杠杆等财务指标错估对股票定价偏误的影响,并探讨分析师预测在其中的作用。研究发现,收益率低估和杠杆高估均会导致负向定价偏误。一种可能的解释是证券分析师未起到理性引领的作用,反而在财务指标错估的大潮中随波逐流,在财务指标错估和股票定价偏误之间发挥了中介作用。拓展性分析发现,除了收益率和杠杆以外,成长性指标的错估也会导致股票定价偏误,而分析师预测活动同样在其中起到了中介作用。此外,相较于一般分析师,明星分析师不易受到财务指标错估的影响,能在一定程度上缓解财务指标错估对股票定价偏误的影响。

Due to the confusion of the concepts of capital and assets in the traditional financial system,the financial indicators of listed companies are continuously miscalculated,and financial information is severely distorted.Taking the Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2018 as a sample,this paper focuses on the impact of miscalculation of financial indicators such as yield and leverage on stock pricing errors,and discusses the role of analyst forecasts in this process.The study shows that both underestimation of yield and overestimation of leverage can lead to negative pricing bias.One possible explanation is that securities analysts have not played the role of rational guidance.Instead,they have followed the tide of miscalculation of financial indicators and played an intermediary role between miscalculation of financial indicators and stock pricing errors.Extensive analysis finds that,in addition to yield and leverage,miscalculation of growth indicators can also lead to stock pricing bias,and analysts′forecasting activities also play an intermediary role.In addition,compared with general analysts,star analysts are less susceptible to financial index miscalculation,which can alleviate the impact of financial index miscalculation on stock pricing errors to a certain extent.This study theoretically enriches the research literature in the areas of financial index miscalculation and capital market pricing efficiency,and provides a deeper understanding of the impact and role of financial index miscalculation on stock pricing bias for securities analysts,investors,and related decision-making departments.The mechanism provides empirical evidence and important enlightenment,and it helps to advocate the improvement of the miscalculation of indicators to improve the pricing efficiency of the capital market.