中国FDI发展路径的“转型假说”——双向FDI逆周期增长的内在逻辑分析

The "Transformation Hypothesis" of China’s FDI Development Path——The Inner Logic of Counter-Cyclic Growth of Bilateral FDI

本文从经济发展转型角度来解释中国双向FDI"逆周期增长"的内在逻辑,提出中国FDI发展路径的"转型假说"。中国经济增长转型中的成本压力增加、技术差距缩小与产业结构调整促使双向FDI的规模与性质发生重要变化,FDI在发挥弥补经济增长缺口效应的同时,实现了经济发展转型与中国双向FDI逆周期增长之间的互动关系。然而,一国的转型风险将影响FDI的稳定性与技术溢出效应,需要通过发展型国家优势来实现风险规避与有效转型。现阶段中国双向FDI的超前发展意味着解决转型问题已经难以等待经典国际投资发展路径中"邓宁拐点"的到来,未来需要借助发展型国家优势,构建基于双向FDI的发展战略转型模式,促进资源全球配置与能力获取,最终实现经济发展的成功转型。

This paper explains the inner logic of China’s bilateral FDI "counter-cyclical growth" from the perspective of economic development transition, and proposes the "transition hypothesis" of China’s FDI development path. The increasing cost pressure, narrowing technology gap and industrial restructuring in China’s growth transition have led to significant changes in the scale and nature of bilateral FDI. The interaction between economic development transition and bilateral FDI counter-cyclical growth is realized while FDI plays a role in bridging the gap in economic growth. Yet the transition risk of a country will affect the stability of FDI and technology spillover effect, there is a need for drawing on developmental country advantages in reducing the risk and achieving transformation. Accordingly, the current advance development of bilateral FDI means that we cannot wait for the arrival of the "Dunning inflection point" in the classical international investment development path to solve the transition problem. In the future, China needs to depend on the advantages of developmental country, and establishes bilateral FDI development strategy to promote global allocation of resources and acquisition of capacity, and finally achieve a successful economic development transition.