中国资本项目开放:进程、影响与实现路径——率先实现实体部门资本项目可兑换的可行性研究

China’s Capital Account Opening: Process, Impact and Realization Path——Study on the Feasibility of Taking the Lead in Realizing Capital Account Convertibility in the Physical Sector

中国资本项目开放进程已近30年,目前直接投资项下业务已基本可兑换,证券投资项下和其他投资项下业务基本可兑换或部分可兑换,实体部门的投融资需求基本能够满足。中国资本项目开放趋势与宏观经济形势变化密切相关,研究发现,资本项目开放对我国宏观经济有正向影响,且不同子项目的影响存在差异,直接投资促进了我国实体经济的发展且对金融部门的影响比较小,证券投资在促进我国实体经济发展的同时会对股票市场带来显著影响,其他投资在推动我国进出口发展的同时也对汇率市场和利率市场造成影响。鉴于不同资本账户子项目的差异特征,研究提出"率先实现实体部门资本项目可兑换,有序推进金融部门资本项目开放,重点把握资本项目可兑换与人民币国际化和国际金融中心建设同步关系"的中国资本项目开放路径。

China’s capital account liberalization process has been nearly 30 years. At present, the businesses under direct investment are basically convertible, and the businesses under securities investment and other investments are basically fully convertible or partially convertible, and the investment and financing needs of the entity sector can basically be met. The trend of China’s capital account opening is closely related to changes in the macroeconomic situation. Research finds that capital account opening has a positive impact on China’s macro economy, and the impacts of different sub-projects are different. Direct investments promote the development of China’s real economy and have a relatively small impact on the financial sector. Securities investments have a significant impact on the stock market while promoting the development of China’s real economy. Other investments also have an impact on the exchange rate market and interest rate market while promoting the development of China’s imports and exports. In view of the different characteristics of different capital account sub-projects, this article researches and proposes the opening path of China’s capital account "taking the lead in realizing the convertibility of capital account in the entity sector, promoting the opening of capital account in the financial sector in an orderly manner, grasping the simultaneous relationship among capital account convertibility and the internationalization of the RMB and the construction of Shanghai international financial center".