南京市21世纪四季开始日和长度的预估

Projection Research of the Beginning Data and Length of Seasons in Nanjing in the 21st Century

在全球变暖的背景下,气温升高使得四季的起止时间和长度有明显的改变。研究21世纪南京市季节开始日和长度的变化,可以为工农业生产、人民生活以及政府决策提供更多的参考依据。通过对CMIP5中的模式结果进行预估,结果表明,在21世纪,南京市春季推迟,夏季提前,秋季推迟,冬季提前,春秋长度变化较小,夏季长度明显增加,冬季长度明显减小。与RCP4.5排放情景相比,四季开始日和长度变化在RCP8.5排放情景下更加显著。与21世纪中期(2041—2070年)和前期(2011—2030年)相比,21世纪后期(2071—2100年)其变化更显著。

On the background of global warming,the starting and ending dates of seasons and their length change obviously owing to air temperature rising.Research on the varation of the starting dates of seasons and their length in Nanjing can take more reference for industrial and agricultural production,national life and governmen⁃tal decision.By using of the model results of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,we predict the vara⁃tion of the starting dates of seasons and their length in Nanjing.The results show that in 21st century,the staring date of spring and autumn in Nanjing will delay,and summer winter will advance.The change of spring and au⁃tumn's length is not obvious,while the variation of spring and autumn's length is obvious with longer summer and shorter winter.Compared with RCP4.5 emission scenarios,the varation of the starting dates of seasons and their length in RCP8.5 emission scenarios is more noticeable.The change is more manifest in the later period(from 2071 to 2100)of 21st century than in the former(from 2011 to 2040)and middle(from 2041 to 2070)period.