绵阳市近60年来气候变化特征

Analysis of Characteristics of Climate Change in Mianyang City in Recent 60 Years

基于绵阳市1954—2016年气象资料数据,采用线性趋势法、滑动平均法、变差系数法、累积距平法、Mann-kendall检验法和小波分析法,分析了绵阳市近60年气候变化特征,探讨了气候变化的原因。结果表明:近60年来绵阳市年降水量处于减少趋势,下降速率为-33.06 mm/10a。绵阳市降水量季节变化趋势和幅度并不一致,春季在波动中略有上升,夏季、秋季、冬季呈波动下降趋势。年平均气温处于增长趋势,增温速率为0.168℃/10 a,上升速率最大的是冬季;其次为秋季,再次为春季,最小为夏季。并对气温和降水的变化趋势的原因进行了简要分析,表明绵阳市温度呈上升趋势以及降水处于下降趋势可能的原因是城市人口的增加、城市面积的扩大,以及绵阳市城市经济的发展尤其是第二产业的发展。

Based on meteorological data from 1954 to 2016 in Mianyang City,using the least-squares method,mov⁃ing average,coefficient of variation,cumulative anomaly method,Mann-Kendall test method and wavelet analysis method,the characteristics of climate change in recent 60 years were analyzed and influencing factors were dis⁃cussed.The results show that the annual precipitation in a decreasing trend and the decreasing rate is-33.06mm/10a.The seasonal variation trend and amplitude of precipitation are not consistent,with a slight increase in spring and a fluctuating decrease trend in summer,autumn and winter.The annual mean temperature was on an increas⁃ing trend with a warming rate of 0.168℃/10a,and the increasing rate was the largest in winter.The second is au⁃tumn,the second is spring,and the minimum is summer.The reasons for the trend of temperature and precipitation change are analyzed briefly that the possible reasons are the increase of urban population,the expansion of urban area and the development of urban economy,especially the development of the secondary industry.