林业碳汇项目综合风险评价研究--以浙江、福建、江西、广东林业碳汇项目为例

Research on Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Forestry Carbon Sequestration Project--Taking Zhejiang,Fujian,Jiangxi,and Guangdong Forestry Carbon Sink Projects as Examples

科学合理地评价林业碳汇项目的风险对于促进林业碳汇项目开发、实现绿色发展具有重要意义。以浙江、福建、江西、广东的林业碳汇项目为研究对象,将林业碳汇项目的风险进归纳为自然风险、技术风险、市场风险、政策风险4类风险源,采用结构方程对林业碳汇项目的风险进行综合评价,识别出风险因子对林业碳汇项目的影响路径和作用程度,并将结果与层次分析法、熵权法得到的碳汇项目风险值进行综合比较分析。结果显示,自然风险、技术风险、市场风险和政策风险的影响权重分别为0.2600、0.2966、0.1922和0.2512;自然风险、技术风险、市场风险和政策风险的风险值分别为0.6126、0.6229、0.6919和0.7033;林业碳汇项目的综合风险值为0.6564,说明4省林业碳汇项目开发的风险等级为中等水平;基于结构方程得到的风险权重更趋于均衡,风险值更重视政策风险和市场风险,体现风险指标相互作用的特征。最后,基于研究结果提出了促进林业碳汇项目可持续发展的对策建议。

Scientific and reasonable assessment of the risk of forestry carbon sequestration projects is of great significance for promoting the development of forestry carbon sequestration projects and realizing green development.Taking the forestry carbon sequestration projects in four provinces of Zhejiang,Fujian,Jiangxi and Guangdong as the research objects,classifying the risks of forestry carbon sequestration projects into four types of risk sources:natural risk,technical risk,market risk,policy risk,using structural equation to comprehensively evaluate the risk of forestry carbon sequestration projects,the influence path and effect degree of risk factors on forestry carbon sequestration projects were identified,the results were compared with the risk value of carbon sink project obtained by analytic hierarchy process and entropy method.The research results showed that:the influence weights of natural risk,technical risk,market risk and policy risk are 0.2600,0.2966,0.1922 and 0.2512 respectively;the risk value of natural risk,technical risk,market risk and policy risk are 0.6126,0.6229,0.6919 and 0.7033 respectively;the comprehensive risk value of forestry carbon sequestration project is 0.6564,which indicates that the risk level of forestry carbon sequestration project development in four provinces is medium level;the risk weight based on structural equation tends to be more balanced,and the risk value pays more attention to policy risk and market risk,reflecting the characteristics of the interaction of risk indicators.Finally,based on the research results,countermeasures and suggestions to promote the sustainable development of forestry carbon sequestration projects were put forward.