基于多目标模型的中国低成本碳达峰、碳中和路径

Multi Objective Programming Model of Low-Cost Path for China′s Peaking Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Carbon Neutrality

为探寻我国低成本碳达峰、碳中和路径,以我国主要耗煤产业、电力、供热、交通以及森林碳汇量为研究对象,构建基于低成本碳达峰、碳中和路径的多目标模型.以成本最小、二氧化碳排放量最少以及大气污染物排放量最少为模型的多目标,以我国2030年前碳达峰以及2060年前碳中和为研究目标设置相应约束条件,并设置产业需求、电力需求、供暖需求、交通需求、各行业新能源比例、污染物控制等约束条件,其中产业考虑煤炭消耗量较大的钢铁、化工、建材以及其他行业,电力考虑火电、核电、风电、太阳能.此外,模型除考虑森林碳汇外,还考虑了碳捕获与封存(CCS)作为实现碳达峰、碳中和的技术手段.结果表明:①我国碳达峰、碳中和实现的可行性较高,2030年及2060年的时间节点设定科学,碳达峰当年的各行业成本约为17.54×10^(12)元,代表行业碳达峰、碳中和时的二氧化碳排放量分别为68.63×10^(8)和34.50×10^(8)t.②以钢铁、化工、建材等为代表的工业转型可行性较低,且对于碳达峰、碳中和目标实现的贡献较小;电力、供热以及交通转型可行性较高,且对碳达峰、碳中和目标实现的贡献较大,电力二氧化碳排放量占比在2030年与2060年将分别达72.86%和43.34%.③煤电装机容量将在规划期内持续减少,需取消部分已规划的煤电项目并改造和提前淘汰部分已有煤电设备;相对风力发电与太阳能发电装机容量持续增加,二者装机容量总和于2030年达12×10^(8)kW,于2060年达24×10^(8)kW.④CCS将为碳达峰、碳中和目标实现提供助力.研究显示,未来我国碳减排工作将重点聚焦于电力系统,其次为供热与交通,建议根据行业特征制定不同省份、不同经济圈的绿色发展模式.

In this study,industry,electric power,heating,transportation and forest carbon sequestration are considered as the objects of study to explore the low-cost path of China′s peaking carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.A low-cost path multi objective programming model for China′s peaking carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality is formulated with the minimum total system cost,emission of carbon dioxide and air pollutants as objective function,and peaking carbon dioxide emissions before 2030,carbon neutralization before 2060,industry supply,power supply,heating supply,transportation supply,proportion of green energy in various industries,and emission controls as constraints.Steel industry,chemical industry,building materials industry and other industries with large coal consumption are considered.Coal power,nuclear power,wind power and solar energy are considered for electric power.Forest carbon sink and carbon capture and storage(CCS)were considered as technical means to achieve peaking carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality in this model.The result shows that:(1)The feasibility of China′s peaking carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality is high,and the time nodes were set scientifically.The annual cost of various industries is about 17.54 trillion RMB when carbon dioxide emissions peaks.The carbon dioxide emissions of representative industries at peaking carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality was about 68.63×10^(8) t and 34.50×10^(8) t,respectively.(2)Industrial transformation represented by iron and steel industry,chemical industry and construction material industry have lower feasibility and less contribution to the realization of peaking carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality,while the transformation of electric power,heating and transportation has higher feasibility and greater contribution to the realization of peaking carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.Carbon dioxide emissions from electric power system will reach 72.86%and 43.34%in 2030 and 2060,respectively.(3)Installed capacity of coal-fired power will decrease continuously.It is necessary to cancel some planned coal-fired power projects,phase out and reform some existing coal-fired power equipment in advance.On the other hand,the capacity of wind power and solar power would increase.In 2030 and 2060,the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power will reach 12×10^(8) kW and 24×10^(8) kW,respectively.(4)CCS will provide the assist force for China achieve its peaking carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality goals.In the future,China′s carbon emission reduction will focus on the power system,followed by heating and transportation.The results of this study suggest that the green development model of different provinces and different economic circles should be formulated according to the characteristics of the industry.