产业指导目录政策的宏观经济动态因果效应评估研究

Study on Dynamic Causal Effect Evaluation of Industrial Policy with Guidance Catalogue

运用政策内容指数方法分别对产业指导目录政策文件和非指导目录产业政策文件进行统计量化,构造了测度产业指导目录政策和非指导目录产业政策的宏观政策变量。并且,建立了分析产业指导目录政策宏观经济效应的SVAR模型,运用SVAR-Ⅳ方法识别与估计了产业指导目录政策冲击对宏观经济系统变量的动态因果效应。实证分析发现:其一,对经济增长率具有倒U型长达三年之久的正向长期效应的产业指导目录政策属于中长期的战略性经济政策,其半衰期超过两年;其二,优化产业结构倒逼消费结构升级、刺激消费增长的传导效应尚待改善;其三,产业指导目录政策冲击对社会投资增长率存在短期负面影响和较长期的刺激效应;其四,优化产业结构的指导目录政策冲击增加了低端加工贸易需求、拉动短期净出口增加,但是对中长期的净出口存在逐渐消失的微弱负面影响;其五,产业指导目录政策冲击对资本和劳动要素增长率均存在非对称V型的动态效应。

In order to quantify industrial policies and evaluate the dynamic causal effect of policies on macroeconomic operation,industrial policy variables are constructed from the industrial policy texts with guidance catalogue and non-guiding catalogue by the approach quantifying policy texts,respectively.Furthermore,a SVAR model is established to analyze the macroeconomic effects of industrial policies with guidance catalogue and the dynamic causal effects of the industrial policy shock on macroeconomic variables are identified and estimated by the SVAR-Ⅳ approach.The empirical study shows that:(1) The industrial guidance catalogue policy with inverted U-shaped positive long-term effect on economic growth rate for more than 3 years is a medium and long-term economic policy with a half-life of about 2 years;(2) The policy shock with industrial guidance catalogue to improve the industrial structure have not the conduction mechanism of optimizing industrial structure to upgrade consumption structure,and stimulate long-term growth of consumption needs to be improved;(3) The policy shock has a short-term negative effect and a long-term positive effect on the growth rate of investment;(4) The policy shock can increase the demand for processing trade goods and boost short-term net exports,however,there is a slight negative impact on longer-term net exports which gradually disappear;(5) There is an asymmetric "V" dynamic effect on the growth rate of capital and labor factors caused by the policy shock.Finally,it analyzes the thinking of the policies with industrial guidance catalogue to accelerate the construction of domestic and international economic double-cycle development pattern.