双循环格局下区际间工业转移和承接态势与匹配

Analysis on the Inter-regional Industrial Transfer or Undertaking Trend and Matching under the Dual-circulation Pattern

双循环经济背景下,合理有序推进区际间工业转移和承接有助于促进资源重新优化配置,推动以国内大循环为主体的国内价值链重构,实现区域经济协调、循环发展。基于偏离—份额模型分离出产业结构效应和当地份额效应判断产业转移类型,并基于主成分分析法评估产业承接环境优势,从转出方和承接方两个维度进行产业转移和承接匹配。研究发现:从2012年、2019年工业转移和承接的比较来看,中国30个省份各要素密集型行业的区位竞争优势普遍表现出“东部衰退,中西部增强”的动态变化趋势;从产业承接环境优势变迁来看,西部地区除资源承接环境优势较突出外,劳动力、投资、科技创新等要素承接环境优势普遍表现出“东部较明显,中部次之,西部相对较弱”的梯度发展态势;综合考虑中国各地区各要素密集型产业转移和承接动态变化趋势及承接环境优势,中国各地区工业产业存在转移和承接不匹配的突出现象。当前,以山西、河南、福建、安徽等为代表的地区分别是承接资源密集型、劳动密集型、资本密集型与技术密集型产业的最佳区域,并提出有助于引导各要素密集型产业有序转移和承接的相关政策建议。

Under the background of dual circular economy,reasonable and orderly industrial transfer and undertaking will help promote the re-optimization of resource allocation,promote the reconstruction of the domestic value chain with the domestic cycle as the main body,and achieve coordinated and circular development of the regional economy.Based on the shift-share model,this paper separates the industrial structure effect and the local share effect to determine the type of industrial transfer,and evaluates the environmental advantages of industrial undertaking based on the principal component analysis method,and matches the industrial transfer/undertaking from the two dimensions of the transferor and the undertaking.We find that:Judging from the comparison between 2010 and 2016,the locational competitive advantages and industrial base advantages of the factor-intensive industries generally show a dynamic trend of“declining in the east and strengthening in the central and western regions”in China’s 30 provinces,in which the location competitive advantages and industrial basic advantages of resource-intensive and labor-intensive industries are more obvious in the western region;From the perspective of the changes in the environmental advantages of industrial undertaking,in addition to the prominent environmental advantages in resource undertaking in the western region,the environmental advantages of factors such as labor force,investment and technological innovation generally show a gradient development trend of“the eastern part is more obvious,the middle part is second,and the west is relatively weak”;Considering the dynamic change trends of the transfer/undertaking of various factor-intensive industries and the environmental advantages of the undertaking in various regions of China,there is a prominent phenomenon of mismatch in the transfer/inheritance of industrial in various regions in China.At present,the regions represented by Shanxi,Henan,Fujian,Anhui,etc.are respectively the best regions to undertake resource-intensive,labor-intensive,capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries.Based on this,we put forward relevant policy recommendations that will help guide the orderly transfer/undertaking of various factor-intensive industries.