基于EFAST法的APSIM小麦产量形成参数敏感性分析

Global sensitivity analysis of APSIM wheat yield formation based on EFAST method

【目的】为了有效识别影响APSIM小麦产量形成的敏感参数,简化模拟过程.【方法】结合2016~2017年甘肃省定西市安定区凤翔镇安家沟村大田试验数据及1971~2019年定西市安定区气象资料,利用扩展傅里叶幅度检验法(extended fourier amplitude sensitivity test,EFAST),借助Simlab软件,对APSIM模型18个作物参数进行敏感性分析,并对筛选后的参数设置单因素梯度检验.【结果】6个敏感参数的敏感性排序:每克茎籽粒数量>灌浆期籽粒日潜在灌浆速率>单株最大籽粒质量>作物春化敏感性指数>灌浆到成熟积温>出苗到拔节积温.其中,每克茎籽粒数量、灌浆期籽粒日潜在灌浆速率和单株最大籽粒质量对模拟产量贡献率分别达50.6%、31.9%和27.5%.在-50%~+50%变化比例下,产量变化绝对值介于0~500 kg/hm^(2).同等增加比例时,出苗到拔节积温引起产量变化幅度最高达249.85 kg/hm^(2);同等减少比例时,单株最大籽粒质量引起产量变化幅度最高达493.55 kg/hm^(2).【结论】通过EFAST法进行敏感性分析,得到对小麦产量形成的6个敏感参数,可在实际应用中优先校准.

【Objective】The study aimed to identify the key parameters affecting the APSIM wheat yield formation and simplify the process of simulation.【Method】Based on the data of field experiment from 2016 to 2017 at Anjiagou village,Fengxiang town,Dingxi city,Gansu province and the meteorological data of Dingxi city from 1971 to 2019,the sensitivity of 18 crop APSIM model parameters was tested by using the extend fourier amplitude sensitivity test method(EFAST)with the software of Simlab,followed by the single-factor gradient test for the parameters after screening.【Result】The order of the sensitivity for 6 parameters was as following:grains per gram stem>potential grain filling rate>max grain size>vernalization sensitivity>accumulated temperature from grain filling to maturity>accumulated temperature from emergence to elongation.Of the six parameters,the contribution rates of grains per gram stem,potential grain filling rate and max grain size to the simulated yield were 50.6%,31.9%and 27.5%,respectively.Under the amplitude of change from-50%to+50%,the absolute value of yield change ranged from 0 to 500 kg/hm^(2).At the same ratio of increase,the yield change caused by the parameter(i.e.,accumulated temperature from emergence to elongation)was 249.85 kg/hm^(2);at the same ratio of reduction,the yield change caused by max grain size was as high as 493.55 kg/hm^(2).【Conclusion】Through the sensitivity analysis of EFAST method,six sensitive parameters for wheat yield formation were obtained,which can be preferentially calibrated in practical application.