基于冬季负积温预测小麦BNS雄性不育系育性的转换率

Prediction of fertility conversion rate of wheat BNS male sterile lines based on negative accumulated temperature in winter

【目的】建立BNS型雄性不育系育性转换预测模型,为BNS杂交小麦种子安全生产提供预测母本不育系育性的技术方法.【方法】用2014~2018年5a负积温为温度指标,对应年份的自交结实率为育性恢复度指标,检验二者之间的相关性,在相关分析的基础上建立预测模型.【结果】10月9日正季播期的BNS,负积温与自交结实率之间相关性达显著水平,相关系数r=-0.9302*.用该相关关系建立回归模型,得到Y1=-0.3186-0.1684X1*,和Y2=0.727EXP(-0.0469X2)**两个回归方程.用该两个回归方程预测2020年度BNS的自交结实率,Y1=0.91%,Y2=1.02%,2020年实际套袋自交结实率为0.63%±1.38%,预测结果与实际结果差异不显著,表明回归模型预测可信.【结论】该预测模型在2月下旬零下温度结束后即可作出预测,时间早,结果准确,对BNS种子生产体系有重要利用价值.

【Objective】The study aimed to establish a model for predicting fertility conversion of BNS male sterile lines of wheat,which is a necessary approach to predict the fertility of male-sterile maternal lines for safe production of BNS hybrid wheat seeds.【Method】The negative accumulated temperature of each of 5 years from 2014 to 2018 was used as the temperature index,and the seed set by self-pollination in each year was used as the fertility recovery index.Then,the correlation between both the two indexes was tested,based on which a prediction model was established.【Result】There was a significant correlation between negative accumulated temperature and the selfing rate of seeds of BNS that was sown on October 9,with a correlation coefficient r=-0.9302*.Based on the correlationship,two regression equations,Y1=-0.3186-0.1684X1*and Y2=0.727EXP(-0.0469X2)**,were obtained.With the regression equations,it was predicted that BNS seeds had a selfing rate of 0.91%(Y1),and 1.02%(Y2)in 2020,and the actual selfing rate of seeds in 2020 was 0.63%±1.38%.It was found that there was no significant difference between the predicted selfing rate and the actual one of seeds in 2002,indicating that the prediction of the model is reliable.【Conclusion】The prediction of BNS seed set by the model could be made in the earlier stage of wheat production in late February when the temperature below zero ends,which was of important value for seed production system of BNS hybrid wheat because of its accuracy.