基于负荷分解技术的小区电能替代需求分析

Non-intrusive load monitoring using low sampling-rate data for electric energy substitution demand analysis

电能替代不仅提高了居民家庭用能设备的电气化水平,同时减少了环境污染,符合社会可持续发展对能源消费的要求。提出一种基于负荷分解技术的比例模型,用于估计电能替代后小区总用电增量。首先分析用户用能场景,提出可用于电能替代的电器。基于公开数据集建立这类电器的负荷分解模型,并在此基础上为小区少量用户安装电流采集器获取低频电能数据,构建非全电用户的实际用电量与替代电能增量的比例关系。然后根据比例关系和小区已知绝大多数用户的实际用电量,估计电能替代后总替代电能增量。最终利用实际天然气用量衡量估计效果。结果表明,仅采样少量小区用户的电能数据成本低廉,且得到的比例关系能较好地估计由电能替代引发的区域用电增量,在推行电能替代中有很好的应用价值。

Electric energy substitution can improve residents’electrification level and reduce environmental pollution.This is in accord with requirements of sustainable development for energy consumption.In this paper,a proportional model-based Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring(NILM)technique is proposed to estimate the total electric energy increment of a community after electric energy substitution.First,this paper analyzes a real scene when residents use energy and get the electric appliance that can be used in electric energy substitution.These appliances are modeled by NILM based on a public dataset,and then current collectors are installed for a few users in the community to obtain low-frequency electric energy data.Based on the NILM model and the collected data,a proportional correlation between real power consumption and replaceable power consumption increment is built.Then the replaceable power consumption increment is estimated based on the established correlation and the actual power consumption of the known majority of users in the community.Finally,the estimation results are evaluated using real gas consumption data.Results show that the cost of sampling a few of users’electricity data is low,and this method can estimate total electric energy increment in a certain area caused by electric energy substitution precisely.This is very helpful when carrying out electric energy substitution.