河北省杂粮供求关系及潜力预测

Supply and Demand Relationship and Potential Forecast of Coarse Cereals in Hebei Province

河北省杂粮种类众多,发展潜力较大,但消费水平较低。以河北省当前杂粮产业发展为背景,分析河北省杂粮生产的供求关系,基于河北省农业统计数据,采用线性方程预测未来河北省杂粮供求情况。结果显示,河北省杂粮当前及未来仍然存在较大的缺口,预计2023年河北省杂粮缺口达248.6万t,需要通过省外或者国际贸易解决缺口问题。最后,从加强杂粮发展政策制定,打造河北杂粮、发展高端精品杂粮,加大科研力度、促进杂粮生产水平提升等方面提出了促进河北省杂粮生产和消费的对策建议。

There are many kinds of coarse cereals in Hebei province,with great development potential but low consumption level.Based on the current development of coarse cereals industry in Hebei province,the supply and demand of coarse cereals production in Hebei province was analyzed,and based on agricultural statistical data of Hebei province,the supply and demand of coarse cereals in Hebei province in the future was predicted by using linear equation.The results showed that there is still a large gap of coarse cereals in Hebei province at present and in the future and the gap of coarse cereals in Hebei province will reach about 2.486 million tons in 2023,which needs to be solved through coarse cereals trade outside the province or Internationally.Finally,countermeasures and suggestions on enhancing the development of coarse cereals production and consumption in Hebei province were put forward from strengthening the formulation of coarse grain development policies,building Hebei coarse cereals and developing high-end fine coarse cereals,strengthening scientific research and promoting the production level of coarse cereals and so on.