基于博弈论与TOPSIS法煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价研究

Study on risk assessment of coal and gas outburst based on game theory and TOPSIS

为准确判断煤与瓦斯的突出危险性,根据煤与瓦斯突出影响因素建立煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价指标体系,引入博弈论思想优化组合主客观权重,构建TOPSIS法煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价模型,并对贵州某矿5#、9#、16#煤层进行评价分析。结果表明:基于博弈论优化组合主客观权重的赋权方法,避免了权重确定中的主观性和不确定性;综合考虑煤层与地质条件、瓦斯条件和煤体物理性质的评价模型考虑因素较为全面,避免了单一指标的片面性;在选定因素的分析范围内,16#煤层具有最大的突出危险性,模型的评价结果与其他评价方法结果一致,验证了模型的可靠性,可为该方法在其他方面的应用提供有效借鉴。

In order to accurately judge the hazard of coal and gas outburst,this study first established the gas outburst risk evaluation index system according to the influencing factors of coal and gas outburst.Game theory was introduced to optimize the combination of subjective and objective weights.The technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution method(TOPSIS)of coal and gas outburst risk evaluation model was then constructed.Finally,this model was used to evaluate and analyze 5#,9#and 16#coal seam in a mine in Guizhou.The results show that the weighting method of optimal combination of subjective and objective weights based on the game theory can avoid the subjectivity and uncertainty in weight determination.The evaluation model which comprehensively considers the coal seam and geological conditions,gas conditions and physical properties of coal body is more comprehensive and can avoid the one-sidedness of a single index.Within the analysis range of selected factors,16#coal seam has the greatest outburst risk.The evaluation results of the proposed model are consistent with those of other evaluation methods,which verifies the reliability of the model and provides effective reference for the application of this method in other aspects.