中国服务业碳排放强度时空格局及影响因素

Temporal-spatial evolution and influencing factors of carbon emission intensity of China’s service industry

服务业碳排放强度是衡量服务业生态文明建设质量的重要标尺。首先,基于IPCC碳排放核算方法对1995-2018年中国服务业碳排放强度进行测算;其次,运用空间自相关分析探讨中国服务业碳排放强度的空间关联特征;最后,借助EKC曲线和IPAT模型,以人口密度、经济发展水平、技术水平、产业结构和能源结构为解释变量,运用地理加权回归模型对中国服务业碳排放强度进行影响因素分析。研究结果表明:(1)1995-2018年中国服务业碳排放强度均值由1.43 t/万元下降至0.22 t/万元,年均降幅为3.53%,1995-2000年为高速下降阶段,2000-2018年为缓慢下降阶段;空间上呈现出"北高南低、西高东低"的分布格局,多数省份的服务业碳排放强度低于全国平均水平。(2)中国服务业碳排放强度存在显著空间正向相关性,表现为先增强后减弱再增强的演变特征;空间关联类型以H-H型集聚和L-L型集聚为主,空间关联格局优化趋向显著,L-H型集聚和H-L型集聚的省份不断减少,L-L型集聚的省份不断增多。(3)各影响因素对服务业碳排放强度均存在显著影响,产业结构和能源结构产生正向影响,人口集聚、经济发展水平和技术水平产生负向影响;影响程度由强到弱依次为技术水平、产业结构、能源结构、经济发展水平和人口密度。因此,各级政府应通过自下而上落实各项节能减排举措、建立健全区域协作机制、提高资源配置效率等途径谋求服务业低碳化发展。

The carbon emission intensity of the service industry is an important index to measure the harmonious relationship between the development of service industry and the ecological environment.First,the carbon emission intensity of China’s service industry was calculated from 1995 to 2018 by means of the reference approach introduced by the IPCC.Then,spatial auto-correlation was used to analyze its spatial correlation feature.Finally,based on the EKC and the IPAT model,taking population density,economic development,technology,industrial structure and energy structure as explanatory variables,this study assessed the influencing factors of the carbon emission intensity of China’s service industry by means of the GWR model.The results showed that:(1)The carbon emission intensity of China’s service industry decreased from 1.43 tons per 10000 yuan to 0.22 tons per 10000 yuan during 1995—2018 with an average annual decrease of 3.53%.The period of high-speed descent was 1995 to 2000,and the period of slow descent was 2000 to 2018.The carbon emission intensity of China’s service industry was high in the northwestern region while low in the southeastern region,and that in most provinces was below the national average.(2)There was significant spatial positive auto-correlation of carbon emission intensity of China’s service industry.The spatial positive auto-correlation went through three stages:strengthening,weakening and strengthening again.The main spatial correlation types of carbon emission intensity of China’s service industry were‘H-H’and‘L-L’agglomeration models.The spatial agglomeration of carbon emission intensity in China’s service industry presented an obvious trend of optimization;the provinces with’L-H’and’H-L’agglomeration model decreased,while the ones with’L-L’agglomeration model increased and spread from the eastern region to the central region.(3)Each influencing factor had significant influence on the carbon emission intensity of the service industry.Industrial structure and energy structure had positive effect on the carbon emission intensity of the service industry,while population density,economic development and technology had obvious negative effect on it and technology was the most important factor affecting the carbon emission intensity of the service industry.The degree of influence was shown in a descending order of technology,industrial structure,energy structure,economic development,and population density.Therefore,the central government and local governments should implement energy-saving and emission-reduction measures from the bottom up,establish and improve regional cooperation mechanisms,and improve the efficiency of resource allocation to achieve low-carbon development of the service industry.